Michael Niemira
Michael Niemira
consumer relatively remained robust spending
Consumer spending has remained relatively robust into 2006.
average bad colder compared cuts degrees ice interfere january last snow weather
The average temperature in January was about 8 degrees colder compared to last year. Cold weather doesn't interfere with shopping. It's the bad weather, with the snow and ice that cuts traffic.
consumer filter healthy oil prices question react relatively rest sales shows
It shows a relatively healthy sales picture. The question is how will the consumer react when oil prices filter through the rest of the economy.
industry performance
It's a decent-to-moderate performance for the industry as a whole.
demand drove easter finally items kinder mother nature past turned
As Mother Nature turned kinder this past week, demand for Easter merchandise and Spring-related items finally drove sales.
backdrop beginning holiday lots november remains
There was lots and lots of discounting this holiday season. From the beginning of November onward, it was very promotional and remains a backdrop for the season.
black caused days friday industry longer numbers people robust sales shopping slightly soft wait weaker weekend year
Additionally, there are two more shopping days this year than last, which may have caused soft Black Friday weekend sales as people wait longer to shop. Nevertheless, after Friday's robust performance, these numbers are slightly weaker than industry analysts would have expected.
continue department easier hear retailers tone
I think you have to read between the lines. In September, retailers say things are on- to above-plan, that's reassuring, even with easier comparisons for the industry. The tone will be important, particularly with some of the department stores. If you continue to hear below-plan sales, that would be worrisome.
capital focus less meaningful ought pick spending worry
I think there's less worry on the consumer, and our focus ought to be more: 'Does business, capital spending pick up?'... That's much more meaningful going forward.
bit gain holiday message momentum move numbers overall positive pricing side stronger suspect trends
I suspect that a little bit of the gain is attributed to stronger pricing power, but overall the trends are very positive for retailers. The message from these numbers is that momentum is on the retailers' side as we move into the holiday season.
goods industry initially pick problem retailers sales selling spread start
I think initially the industry will try to keep the discounts more narrowly focused. The problem is, if sales don't pick up, retailers will start to spread out discounts to those goods not selling as well.
energy needed retailers
Retailers needed to be promotional because of the energy story. We didn't really see any strengthening this season, but we didn't really see any weakening either.
bit consumer last lower planning question retailers season spend weekend
Retailers have been planning for that lower traffic. The question now is, will the consumer in the last weekend of the season spend a little bit more or not?
days redemption
Redemption days are going to be very important this year.