Michael Moran
Michael Moran
change prices random reflect shift vehicle view
We view the change in vehicle prices in the PPI as a random shift and one that does not reflect reality.
situation
The situation has improved, but we're still not where we want to be.
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These countries could take steps and I think they will take steps that will calm the storm some. But I think it's very clear these countries have to take some major steps to restructure their markets.
early federal funds growth increase looking low moved primary push rate reason starting wages warning
I am looking for a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate. The primary reason is because the unemployment rate has moved to a low level, and that low unemployment rate is starting to push the growth of wages higher. That is an early warning sign.
economic key looking market people stock
More than ever before, people are looking to the stock market as the key to the economic recovery.
area coming cyclical housing information latest lower mortgage moved rates recently respond shows
Mortgage rates have moved lower recently and housing could respond in coming months. But the latest information from this cyclical area shows some moderation.
additional average basis increased mortgage points rates
Mortgage rates have increased an additional 35 basis points from their average in the first quarter,
activity backing conclude housing last levels means robust saw spring summer
What I would conclude is that we are backing away from the robust levels of housing activity we saw in the spring and summer of last year, but there is by no means a swoon going on in housing activity just yet.
changes federal influences rate reserve
Without question, the rate changes by the Federal Reserve will have influences on peoples lives,
demand economy effect higher increases influences interest job meaning picking positive puts rate rates rather small
When rate increases are demand-driven, meaning there are other, positive influences going on -- job growth, demand picking up, etc. -- in that case, the effect of higher interest rates is a small dampening, rather than one that puts the economy at risk,
early holiday late looking month numbers portion seeing shopping suggest weak
The numbers suggest we're seeing a weak holiday shopping season. We could see a late surge, but the early portion of the month is looking slow.
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It's very viable to build temporary facilities for things like cycling and swimming.
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It's extremely important. I think it's going to have an important bearing on what the Fed decides to do with its monetary policy.
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The real challenge on the energy front hasn't hit yet because it's not winter. When people start to get high heating bills, it will be another story.