Michael Fitzpatrick
Michael Fitzpatrick
Singer best known as the frontman for the soul-pop band Fitz and the Tantrums. The band's debut LP, Pickin' Up the Pieces, hit number one on the Billboard Heatseekers chart in 2010.
ProfessionSoul Singer
Date of Birth21 July 1970
CityMontlucon, France
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While a late-winter cold snap or cool spring could whittle down some of the storage surplus, it is probably too late to prevent stocks from ending the heating season at record-high levels.
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Still, brimming stocks should keep any rally in check, late week cold notwithstanding.
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The weather is cooperating and helping us replenish supplies. The speculative frenzy that followed the hurricanes has cooled down. Lower refinery operating rates have led to rising crude-oil stocks as products have arrived from elsewhere.
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The surprising fall in gasoline stocks and the approach of the cold are sending us higher. Also, imports contracted and gasoline demand rose.
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If injections from April through October match last year's pace, stocks could begin the next heating season with a record 3.6 trillion cubic feet in the ground.
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If the stock market were not making five- and six-year highs, Iran and the U.S. were fast friends and the Nigerian militants were stuffing flowers in the gun muzzles of the Nigerian army -- then we might be worried about a reversal, but not now.
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We shift back and fourth between a focus on supply versus the world situation. Today we are focused on supply because of tomorrow's report.
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The real dichotomy in this market is that crude inventories are very high and that could make for some violent, back-and-forth price action. For the foreseeable future, the path of least resistance remains up until there is a significant structural economic or political shift.
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Repairs are proceeding apace. Discretionary driving can be cut back but you have got to heat your house. Heating oil will soon lead the market.
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Relatively moderate weather, ample supplies and an escalation in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program should make for another week of high volatility. Absent geopolitical uncertainty, prices should be moving lower.
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It is apparently going to take more than growing inventories to turn prices seriously lower.
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Last year began with a large surplus but an unusually hot summer ate up those reserves and soon thereafter the hurricanes hit. There is still some infrastructure that was damaged, which could be a problem.
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We are in a waiting pattern until the numbers are released. The conditions that brought us to these levels remain, so we may resume our move higher once the report is digested.
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It's high noon at the Security Council. Prices will rise because tensions are high. Iran has said that it would not specifically use oil as a weapon but now they are changing their tune.