Michael Fitzpatrick
Michael Fitzpatrick
Singer best known as the frontman for the soul-pop band Fitz and the Tantrums. The band's debut LP, Pickin' Up the Pieces, hit number one on the Billboard Heatseekers chart in 2010.
ProfessionSoul Singer
Date of Birth21 July 1970
CityMontlucon, France
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The mild weather and contracting demand are continuing to send us lower. Crude oil will soon test $56 and the products $1.50.
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Crude oil will have to fall eventually because supplies are adequate and demand is not the greatest for this time of year. You can't justify crude oil at close to $60.
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The weekly inventory numbers caught the market by surprise again. The unanimous UN decision demanding Iran stop nuclear enrichment probably rekindled concern that Iran will use oil as a political weapon.
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The surprising fall in gasoline stocks and the approach of the cold are sending us higher. Also, imports contracted and gasoline demand rose.
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The effects of Katrina will be felt throughout the economy, reducing demand and keeping a lid on energy prices. The federal government is ready to release barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and there is significant help coming from abroad.
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The conclusion is probably being made that any surplus will be promptly sopped up as soon as seasonal demand kicks in.
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All the elements that brought us to this level are still with us. The growing demand in China and India is not going away. Nor do I see geopolitical tensions diminishing. I'm not expecting an outbreak or reasonableness in the Middle East anytime soon.
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We shift back and fourth between a focus on supply versus the world situation. Today we are focused on supply because of tomorrow's report.
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The real dichotomy in this market is that crude inventories are very high and that could make for some violent, back-and-forth price action. For the foreseeable future, the path of least resistance remains up until there is a significant structural economic or political shift.
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Repairs are proceeding apace. Discretionary driving can be cut back but you have got to heat your house. Heating oil will soon lead the market.
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Relatively moderate weather, ample supplies and an escalation in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program should make for another week of high volatility. Absent geopolitical uncertainty, prices should be moving lower.
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It is apparently going to take more than growing inventories to turn prices seriously lower.
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Last year began with a large surplus but an unusually hot summer ate up those reserves and soon thereafter the hurricanes hit. There is still some infrastructure that was damaged, which could be a problem.
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While a late-winter cold snap or cool spring could whittle down some of the storage surplus, it is probably too late to prevent stocks from ending the heating season at record-high levels.