Maureen Allyn
Maureen Allyn
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We're growing vigorously, and I think that the bond market is right to be a little bit concerned about this. It's not the data we've gotten, but the data we didn't get. We didn't get a slowdown in the second quarter. That, I think, is going to make the Fed very nervous.
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Greenspan's testimony to Congress is always an event and probably more so this time than usual. We are looking at the Fed with a bias to tightening and we have to get some warning of whether he is going to act on that or not. So what I am looking for is a clear signal.
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This is kind of capping a string of fairly strong numbers, and I'm even going to have to boost my estimate of fourth quarter GDP up closer to 3 percent. We know the Fed is sitting on the edge of its seat. It's going to make everybody a bit nervous.
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The Fed is very happy to see this kind of stabilization, but they're going to be worried about inflation and credit. Honestly, I think the Fed understands how fragile a position the economy is in because when you slow down this fast it sets a lot of stuff in motion. They want to get ahead of that and make sure it doesn't get worse.
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With profits in such a tailspin, I'm revising down my capital expenditure outlook for the next six to nine months, and (I see) almost zero job growth for rest of this year.
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We just don't see the wage pressures and I think the bond market is so happy because that means there really isn't any threat of inflation out there. Remember all those terrible surprises we used to get on Fridays? It's about time the bond market got a good one.
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I am really concerned that one of these months we are going to get a bad inflation number. I think the markets have to be very nervous in front of these inflation numbers.
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The price we have to pay for all this is someplace. Early in the century, we're going to see a real good old-fashioned panic of the kind we haven't seen in a long time.
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What we're getting are increasing signs of caution on the part of consumer. You simply can't be in this society and read all the headlines about job losses going on without wondering if this is going to apply to you sometime.
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People may not be feeling all that good, but they are trying to cheer themselves up. They're not constrained yet, but I do think it is going to set in. The bear market has taken a big, big bite out of wealth, and history tells us when that happens people do sort of cut back.
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I thought the first six months of the year would be a white-knuckle ride. But monetary policy is as effective as ever. That money takes time to get in there, but I think it will stabilize things. We shouldn't expect anything to happen until July at earliest, though, and we'll have a few more months of holding our breath here.
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I think we're going to have to begin to believe that we're not in an inflationary environment. Sooner or later it's going to sink in.
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I think we are heading into the worst of it. Investors think there we're heading towards a recovery in the next six months and I hope that they are right, but I just don't see the valuations for a huge rally going forward.
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I think that's got to be a better-than-even chance at this point. We know from their discussions that they were very, very nervous. This isn't going to calm them down any.