Maureen Allyn
Maureen Allyn
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We're growing vigorously, and I think that the bond market is right to be a little bit concerned about this. It's not the data we've gotten, but the data we didn't get. We didn't get a slowdown in the second quarter. That, I think, is going to make the Fed very nervous.
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Greenspan's testimony to Congress is always an event and probably more so this time than usual. We are looking at the Fed with a bias to tightening and we have to get some warning of whether he is going to act on that or not. So what I am looking for is a clear signal.
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The Fed is very happy to see this kind of stabilization, but they're going to be worried about inflation and credit. Honestly, I think the Fed understands how fragile a position the economy is in because when you slow down this fast it sets a lot of stuff in motion. They want to get ahead of that and make sure it doesn't get worse.
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This is kind of capping a string of fairly strong numbers, and I'm even going to have to boost my estimate of fourth quarter GDP up closer to 3 percent. We know the Fed is sitting on the edge of its seat. It's going to make everybody a bit nervous.
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Employers are reluctant to hire people who can't do the job they want and they're reluctant to pay more.
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There's a difference between being stable and starting to grow again. I think that's what we're hearing from companies, too - the worst may be over, but we really don't see the upside coming, and that's what these jobless claims suggest.
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Realistically, they've done a lot already. The economy may be sleepy, but you don't need to hit it with everything you've got.
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Private sector credit from 1999 through the first half of 2001 was adding $1.2 trillion per year. It was the mother of all credit expansions.
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I am really concerned that one of these months we are going to get a bad inflation number. I think the markets have to be very nervous in front of these inflation numbers.
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We just don't see the wage pressures and I think the bond market is so happy because that means there really isn't any threat of inflation out there. Remember all those terrible surprises we used to get on Fridays? It's about time the bond market got a good one.
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With profits in such a tailspin, I'm revising down my capital expenditure outlook for the next six to nine months, and (I see) almost zero job growth for rest of this year.
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It's not a dramatic fallout, and I don't see any evidence of panic. It's much more of a gradual adjustment; people have to diversify a little more. It just slows things down a little bit.
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The August jobs report gave Wall Street just what it wanted.
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What we're getting are increasing signs of caution on the part of consumer. You simply can't be in this society and read all the headlines about job losses going on without wondering if this is going to apply to you sometime.