Maureen Allyn
Maureen Allyn
adding credit half mother per private sector trillion
Private sector credit from 1999 through the first half of 2001 was adding $1.2 trillion per year. It was the mother of all credit expansions.
almost capital growth job next nine outlook profits rest revising six zero
With profits in such a tailspin, I'm revising down my capital expenditure outlook for the next six to nine months, and (I see) almost zero job growth for rest of this year.
bond good happy inflation market means pressures remember surprises terrible threat time wage
We just don't see the wage pressures and I think the bond market is so happy because that means there really isn't any threat of inflation out there. Remember all those terrible surprises we used to get on Fridays? It's about time the bond market got a good one.
bad concerned front inflation markets months nervous
I am really concerned that one of these months we are going to get a bad inflation number. I think the markets have to be very nervous in front of these inflation numbers.
early good panic pay price seen
The price we have to pay for all this is someplace. Early in the century, we're going to see a real good old-fashioned panic of the kind we haven't seen in a long time.
bit bond concerned data fed growing market second
We're growing vigorously, and I think that the bond market is right to be a little bit concerned about this. It's not the data we've gotten, but the data we didn't get. We didn't get a slowdown in the second quarter. That, I think, is going to make the Fed very nervous.
apply caution headlines increasing job losses signs simply society wondering
What we're getting are increasing signs of caution on the part of consumer. You simply can't be in this society and read all the headlines about job losses going on without wondering if this is going to apply to you sometime.
bear bite cheer cut feeling happens history market people sort taken tells themselves trying
People may not be feeling all that good, but they are trying to cheer themselves up. They're not constrained yet, but I do think it is going to set in. The bear market has taken a big, big bite out of wealth, and history tells us when that happens people do sort of cut back.
breath effective expect few happen holding july monetary money months policy six takes time until year
I thought the first six months of the year would be a white-knuckle ride. But monetary policy is as effective as ever. That money takes time to get in there, but I think it will stabilize things. We shouldn't expect anything to happen until July at earliest, though, and we'll have a few more months of holding our breath here.
begin believe environment later sink sooner
I think we're going to have to begin to believe that we're not in an inflationary environment. Sooner or later it's going to sink in.
heading hope huge investors months next rally recovery six towards worst
I think we are heading into the worst of it. Investors think there we're heading towards a recovery in the next six months and I hope that they are right, but I just don't see the valuations for a huge rally going forward.
calm chance
I think that's got to be a better-than-even chance at this point. We know from their discussions that they were very, very nervous. This isn't going to calm them down any.
cue cut everybody good gotten markets quarter
I think they'll cut a quarter point, like everybody else in the market. The markets have gotten a pretty good read on what's going on, and I take my cue from them.
higher later oil people prices start
Just as a warning: People better start bracing for higher oil prices later in the year.