Matthias Rubisch
Matthias Rubisch
confidence forecasts growth optimistic peak percent realistic returning seen
We've probably seen the peak in confidence. The most optimistic growth forecasts are for about 2 percent this year, but that's not really a boom. We've seen some euphoria, but now we're returning to more realistic levels.
coming demand global growth industrial looks positive production quarter rebound remains situation slightly tendency
Global demand remains the most important factor, and the situation looks good. We should see a rebound in growth in the first quarter and a slightly positive tendency in industrial production over the coming months.
above energy headline increase inflation looks rate reason trend
We see a big upward trend in energy prices, but without that, the inflation rate is going down. The ECB looks at the headline figure, and as long as it's above 2 percent, it's a reason to increase rates.
confirm data expect export finally hard performance positive recent seeing sentiment strong
We're finally seeing hard data that confirm the recent positive sentiment indicators. We expect a strong export performance well into 2007.
companies germany moderation people rise simply split wage wages
Germany is a split economy. Wage moderation made German companies internationally competitive in the first place. If wages only rise moderately, people may feel optimistic, but they simply don't have that much to spend.
above coming data economic expect inflation keeps raise strong target
Inflation is still above target and as long as the economic data keeps coming in strong we expect the ECB will raise rates.