Marshall Prentice
Marshall Prentice
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We're watching the market carefully for any signs of a turn, for any signs of the 'bursting bubble' that some analysts have been predicting. So far we're not seeing anything other than the normal incremental changes you would expect in the ebb and flow of a real estate cycle.
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We still expect the annual increase in median to go down into the single digits sometime this summer.
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Demand still seems to be there, but the sense of urgency seems to be a thing of the past. We don't expect the market to tumble, but we do expect price increases to level off between now and spring.
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Right now we don't see anything ominous in the numbers, just a real estate cycle that is past the frenzy phase.
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Sales are strong, but not at a peak, and price increases are slowing down, especially in the markets that took off first back in 1998 and 1999.
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March numbers are pretty good at predicting upcoming activity. We figure that sales will be good but not spectacular on into the summer and that price increases will stay below 10 percent. We'll probably have a couple of months with new price peaks, but those new records will be reached at a slower rate of appreciation.
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Trends in January and February are notoriously bad at predicting upcoming activity. Is the market taking a breather? Or is it starting to tumble? It's impossible to say, there's nothing really ominous in the numbers, but we won't know for another couple of months.
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Because of the rise in home values, much of that financial distress has been covered by the increasing amount of equity that people have had in their homes. That equity is now being created at a slower pace, and default activity is inevitably on the rise.
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It's numbers like these that both bubble-theorists and market cheerleaders can pounce on to make their points. Reality is more mundane.
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We're a bit surprised at how stable the market is in all categories. Usually one segment of the market will be outperforming the others. Right now, though, the same trends apply to all parts of the market from entry-level on up.
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This stability means that the market will probably stay strong at least through the end of the year.
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Today's Bay Area real estate market has all the characteristics of a relatively normal balanced market. We knew the year-ago numbers were unsustainably strong. Right now it looks like current trends will last well into 2006, with strong, but not record-breaking sales, and continued appreciation.
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We won't know for another couple of months if this is a lull in the market or part of a longer-term downturn. It's always difficult to project from trends we see in January and February. The March numbers will tell us much more about what's going on.
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People lose their jobs, have medical emergencies, get divorced, pass away or make bad money decisions at a certain rate. Because of the rise in home values, much of that financial distress has been covered by the increasing amount of equity that people have had in their homes.