Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
Marc Chandleris a well known foreign exchange market analyst, writer, speaker, and professor. On August 19, 2009, Bloomberg L.P. published Chandler's first book, Making Sense of the Dollar...
cut early economic persist quarter rate risk second summer tone weak
Should the weak economic tone persist into early second quarter data, the risk of a summer rate cut increases.
confident less percent
Now they are less than 50 percent confident that there will be any rise.
ahead cycle fed gets looked market opportunity until
Through this tightening cycle the market has looked at every opportunity to say the Fed is done. The Fed is not done until the market gets ahead of the Fed and it is not there yet.
exchange foreign global holiday london market pick problem quiet slack york
The quiet in the market has more to do with the holiday than it does with the strike. Foreign exchange is such a global market that if there's a staffing problem in New York City, they can pick up the slack in London or in other centers.
affect balances currency expect movements trade
It's unreasonable to expect currency movements to affect trade balances when you have all these other disequilibria like wages.
record seen short
We've seen speculators try to get out of short yen positions, which were at record levels.
carry momentum people playing trade
There are some people playing the carry trade and there are some people who are momentum players.
finesse move size timing
Ultimately, it is not the size of intervention that matters, but the timing of the move to finesse the market.
hit sideways trading until
We're still trading sideways until we hit 108 yen.
broad trading
We're still consolidating in a broad trading range.
cycle hikes increases light minutes rate shed
We still don't know how many more rate hikes there are in the cycle and the minutes don't really shed light on that. But rate hike increases are probably not large.
against comments euro european helped lows officials push recent several statement
Today's comments are back on messages, noting as several European officials have said in recent days, that the G7 statement was aimed at Asia, not Europe. This has helped push the euro to new five-week lows against the yen.
based camp favor march pendulum rate renewed swung
The pendulum has swung back in favor of a March rate hike. The dollar-bull camp is based on the interest-rate differentials. They have really renewed their widening.
turn
There's been a turn in psychology. It has been buy-the-dips. Now it is sell-the-rallies.