Lynn Reaser
Lynn Reaser
although check economy energy fed growth inflation likely rising risks solid suggest underlying upside
The Fed is likely to acknowledge some dampening in growth from rising energy costs. But it will suggest the underlying economy is solid and although inflation has been in check recently, there are upside risks going forward,
almost attention economic equal four individual months noise pay reports takes tend three trend underlying
They (investors) tend to overreact to individual economic reports which may be more statistical noise than an underlying trend which takes three to four months to develop, ... They tend to pay equal attention to almost any report that is relevant, and some are more significant than others.
affecting certainly consumer continued economy-and-economics energy higher increase job level market prevent prices psychology relative spending strength underlying
The higher level of energy prices is certainly affecting the psychology of consumers. But the underlying strength of the economy, and the continued increase in the relative strength of the underlying job market should prevent consumer spending from collapsing.
activity business claims next reflect region relatively seems three trend underlying
The underlying trend still seems to be relatively low, but the jobless claims will reflect the destruction to business activity in the region during the next two to three weeks.
change deployed expect fed funds increase rate recent tactics target
We expect the 12th consecutive increase in the target fed funds rate and really no change in the tactics deployed in recent meetings.
allow economy growth news next positive recession stimulus track
We don't think we are going to have another recession ... We think there is enough stimulus in the pipeline, enough positive news in there to allow the economy to keep on a growth track for the next year.
benign economy-and-economics inflation mode number shows
This number shows that inflation is in a benign mode for the U.S. economy.
close peak
We could very much be close to the peak at this time.
adding companies expansion general imports petroleum rebuilding strength
On the import side, the strength is from a rebuilding of inventories from companies and a general expansion of the U.S. economy. Petroleum imports increased, adding to the import bills.
believe light
But we do believe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
actively businesses confidence hiring point
Businesses are regaining confidence to the point where they are now actively hiring new workers.
basically benign economic growth optimal present solid
We have basically an optimal present economic situation, with solid growth and benign inflation.
biting confidence consumer consumers decline large nails remains retailers seen vote whether
Retailers are biting their nails because of the large decline in consumer confidence. But it remains to be seen whether consumers will vote with their feet.
believe changes companies economy embrace statistics
Statistics do lag changes in the economy. I believe we will be migrating to one economy that will be a new economy as many companies that have been around for years embrace some of the newer technology.