Lyle Gramley
Lyle Gramley
Lyle Elden Gramleywas an American economist. Involved in economic policymaking during the Carter and Reagan presidencies, he served on the Council of Economic Advisers from 1977 to 1980, and on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1980 to 1985...
early fed happen heading inflation late low means might rate sees sit starting time turning until
This time, we're starting with an inflation rate that's too low and heading lower, ... What that means is the Fed will sit still until such time as it sees inflation start turning up -- which might not happen until late 2004 or early 2005.
chances cut increase rate rule
If this deterioration continues, I think the chances of another rate cut are going to increase significantly, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of an inter-meeting move,
lower mortgage rates since today
Mortgage rates haven't been significantly lower than the rates we have today since the 1960s.
deflation fed flirting lets needs rates running starts toward worry
I think the Fed needs to worry about the possibility it's flirting with deflation if it lets this go too far. When nominal rates get down toward zero, the Fed starts running out of ammunition.
economy either fed greater inflation interest interpret moving persist rates report until weak
I can't interpret this report as a weak economy, and I don't think the Fed will either. They are going to persist in moving interest rates up until they see greater indications than what we have now that either the economy is weakening, or inflation is getting under control, or both.
aside await content definitive election evidence fed inflation interest itself looking problem raise rates setting sidelines sit whether
The Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines to await more definitive evidence as to whether inflation is going to be a problem or not, ... Setting the election aside entirely, the Fed, looking at the incoming data, would say to itself 'right now we don't want to raise interest rates and we don't need to raise interest rates.'
awful concern confidence economic face interest raise rates recovery ultimate
If you raise interest rates in the face of what you know will be some pretty awful economic numbers, you must have a lot of confidence about the economy's ultimate recovery and a lot of concern about inflation.
above economy head interest rates rise struggling water welcome
This is an economy that's been struggling to keep its head above water for some time, so this kind of a rise in long-term interest rates is not welcome at this point,
counter deflation fed saying tools worries
There are a lot of worries circulating around about deflation, ... What the Fed is doing is saying we don't need to worry. If deflation happens, they will counter aggressively, and they have the tools to do so.
alan financial greenspan markets uneasy
Financial markets are going to become uneasy about this because Alan Greenspan has become an oracle,
along ben fed highly learn markets slips trying
What the Fed is trying to do, by being more transparent and more communicative, is highly desirable. But there are going to slips along the way. Ben will learn and the markets will learn.
apart beginning bond energy inflation knew market pick rise signs talk worried
I don't know what the bond market has been worried about. There's much talk about the possibility of inflation beginning to pick up. I don't see any signs of that at all apart from the rise in energy prices, which we all knew was going to take place.
below concern extended growth likelihood mean period rising
My concern is not with a double-dip recession. It's with the likelihood we are gong to be in an extended period of growth below potential, and that would mean rising unemployment.
comments secretary seem treasury
It doesn't seem to me at all appropriate for a secretary of the Treasury to make such comments in any event,