Lyle Gramley
Lyle Gramley
Lyle Elden Gramleywas an American economist. Involved in economic policymaking during the Carter and Reagan presidencies, he served on the Council of Economic Advisers from 1977 to 1980, and on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1980 to 1985...
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This is a very different recovery than any I've seen -- there's none of the dynamism or momentum we normally see,
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Not only is he as mentally acute as the average 77-year-old, he's as acute as the average 27-year-old. He has a phenomenal mind and very good judgment, ... People close to the decision-making at the Fed are almost unanimously in great praise of him, as I would be. I think it's a wonderful thing for the Fed and for the country that he's being kept on.
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The Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines to await more definitive evidence as to whether inflation is going to be a problem or not, ... Setting the election aside entirely, the Fed, looking at the incoming data, would say to itself 'right now we don't want to raise interest rates and we don't need to raise interest rates.'
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The Fed is looking at an economy right now that is growing strongly with upside risks to inflation.
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What the Fed is trying to do, by being more transparent and more communicative, is highly desirable. But there are going to slips along the way. Ben will learn and the markets will learn.
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Crisis management has been elevated to a very fine skill under his tutelage.
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This is an economy that's been struggling to keep its head above water for some time, so this kind of a rise in long-term interest rates is not welcome at this point,
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Anyone who sits at that table knows that if the Fed puts his head up in the midst of an election campaign when it's not necessary to do so, that would be a rather foolish thing to do. You don't want people shooting at you unnecessarily - you'd rather live to fight another day.
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The bottom line is that their principal concern is that inflation might go lower, so we'll get the same kind of statement we got last time.
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This is a situation where the uncertainties have suddenly become huge. If all the concerns translate into much lower personal spending, then the economy could falter.
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If this deterioration continues, I think the chances of another rate cut are going to increase significantly, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of an inter-meeting move,
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I don't know what the bond market has been worried about. There's much talk about the possibility of inflation beginning to pick up. I don't see any signs of that at all apart from the rise in energy prices, which we all knew was going to take place.
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My concern is not with a double-dip recession. It's with the likelihood we are gong to be in an extended period of growth below potential, and that would mean rising unemployment.
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Mortgage rates haven't been significantly lower than the rates we have today since the 1960s.