Louis Navellier
Louis Navellier
Louis G. Navellier is Chairman and Founder of Navellier & Associates in Reno, Nevada, which manages approximately $2.5 billion in assets. Navellier also writes four investment newsletters focused on growth investing: Emerging Growth, Blue Chip Growth, Quantum Growth and Global Growth, and can frequently be seen giving his market outlook and analysis on Bloomberg, Fox News and CNBC...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionBusinessman
CountryUnited States of America
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Optimization tells us precisely how to diversify the portfolio, whether I should have 12% in semiconductors or 4% in biotech, etc., and it literally tells me how to diversify not only the industry groups but the stocks.
interest rate
We test everything on a one- and a three-year cycle. And you want to stress-test a model, and the three-year test usually does that because you have a growth and value bias. You have different interest rate environments.
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One of our big challenges with the newsletter is that everyone thinks big stocks are safe. That's not true at all. They're only safe if the money is flowing there.
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Since we try and take a fairly buy-and-hold approach to our newsletter portfolios and don't sell at every whipsaw, we want to have a mix of stocks that will perform at both ends of the oscillation.
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Now quantitatively we rank things on something called alpha over standard deviation, which is the return independent of the market divided by volatility. Usually, to get a high ranking, you need some buying pressure.
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What we do is we test what works on Wall Street. And sometimes it is earnings momentum, and sometimes it's earnings surprises. Sometimes it's price-to-sales cash flow, and then we put together our stock selection models.
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I expect my return to be 18 to 25 percent in 1988, while the Standard & Poor's 500 should rise 8 to 12 percent and OTC stocks gain 15 percent as liquidity emerges.
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My advice to the average investor in 1988 is to be patient and think long-term. It will take 18 months for confidence to get better and, in the meantime, this is absolutely no place for short-term money.
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Internally, when we manage portfolios, we figure out what works in large cap, what works in mid cap, what works in small cap. Generally speaking, large cap stocks want earning stability, strong cash flow, margin expansion.
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If you go back to 2001, the market had two violent short covering rallies then, although I know the market didn't officially get going until March 2003.
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I simply can't buy as much of some stocks such as Detection Systems or United Education & Software as I'd like because there just aren't all that many shares available.
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I had Dell for four and a half years, and its sales are still phenomenal, but their operating margins started to contract, so I sold it in early 1999. There's nothing wrong with Dell! It's a fine company. It's just the business risk they took.
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I almost always recommend investors get fully invested, since it's better to put your money to work than to let it simply track the rate of inflation.
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When volume drops off, prices settle down. Volume is the force that turns stocks higher.