Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun is a Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors. He oversees the production of existing home sales statistics and the popular Home Buyer and Home Seller survey reports. He regularly appears on CNBC, BBC, Bloomberg Television, and is often quoted in the media. Yun is also a frequent speaker at Real Estate conferences throughout the United States. In March 2008, USA Today listed him among the top 10 economic forecasters in...
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Any time there's job creation, historically prices don't go down.
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You need a strong job market with people in their 20s moving out of their parents' homes before rents recover.
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Our experience says prices do not go down when there's job creation in the local economy. In local markets where they are flat on jobs, they could see prices decline. But we're projecting 2.3 million new jobs this year. The job market is providing a buffer. It's a counter force to rising rates.
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You're seeing two separate markets. One is in the coastal regions where you're seeing a substantial decline in home sales. The second is in the middle part of the country, in the affordable regions, where the job market is more important than interest rates.
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So long as the South remains affordable and the number of available jobs remains steady we forecast continued growth in Atlanta.
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In the Midwest, where homes are very affordable and where home prices have risen much slower than the national average, sales are more dependent on job growth in the overall economy.
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People have been saying that for 20 years. But in San Francisco, it's very difficult to build, so there's a supply constraint. Seattle is also encountering a supply-constraint situation.
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Nationwide, the numbers clearly indicate the market is cooling, but cooling from the record sales pace in 2005. Now, we're experiencing what we characterize as healthy levels.
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People are moving out of these regions to the South and the West. They're putting more supply on the market at the same time there is less demand.
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The larger declines were recorded in the high-priced markets that are more sensitive to mortgage rate changes.
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A typical household in the past two years saw about a $20,000 gain in equity. That's not an insignificant chunk. Homeowners see that wealth and use it to buy additional goods.
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A cut...won't affect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at all. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed rate was 6.8 percent last week, and we think it'll stay about the same. But another interest rate cut could mean a slight drop in the short-term one-year adjustable rate mortgage (ARM).
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The strong rise in prices cut into affordability, even with the low rates.
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The supply of homes is very tight for new and existing homes. We will continue to see healthy home-price appreciation. For non-home owners, that's bad news. But for home owners, that's building wealth.