Lawrence Eagles
Lawrence Eagles
issues night oil plus
As we go forward, geopolitical issues won't go away over night, but we wouldn't have got to oil at $60 plus without a lot of other factors.
although clearly few next opportunity overnight peace signs three window
There were a few signs overnight that, although clearly tensions are rising, there is a window of opportunity for some peace settlement over the next three days.
blame early gains implies iraqi larger oil shipments weeks
It is too early to blame the restart of Iraqi oil shipments for the gains (crude stocks), but implies that gains may be larger in the weeks ahead.
announce bush gasoline measures prices seems short surprise
There seems to be a little surprise that Bush did not announce any measures that would have eased gasoline prices in the short term.
clear demand high impact moment oil prices seen signs starting
There are clear signs at the moment that we are starting to see the impact of high oil prices on demand -- and that's being seen in many regions.
ahead chooses cut meeting output prices public remain size whether
Whether OPEC chooses to make public the size of any output cut ahead of the ministerial meeting Nov. 14 is uncertain, ... But it may well choose to do so if prices remain weak.
reaction short term
in the short term we could see a knee-jerk reaction higher.
indeed obviously perspective quickly stocks strategic
It has to be put into perspective. We have strategic stocks which can obviously be used very quickly indeed if necessary.
again avoid barrel excess falling last prices supply time wants year
This time last year prices were around $32 a barrel before falling to $22 a barrel in May, because of excess supply in the market. OPEC wants to avoid that (happening again this year),
behind clearly doubt driving east force gasoline main market middle momentum provides tension upside
While gasoline was clearly the main driving force behind the market on Friday, there is little doubt that the Middle East tension also provides some upside momentum for crude.
caution clearly collapse currently early given main next oil paranoia price pumping threatens
Given the paranoia of the cartel that it is currently pumping too much oil and that this threatens a price collapse early next year, caution will clearly be the main watchword.
disruption further physical response review specific supply
We have responded to a very specific physical supply disruption and we will review that response as we go further forward.
clearly however risk small
There is clearly a risk that this is going to happen, however small that risk may be,
dangerous follow game playing prepared
OPEC is playing a dangerous game of bluff, and has to be prepared to follow it through.