Larry Wachtel
Larry Wachtel
Larry Wachtelwas a stock, bonds, and equities commentator on the New York City metropolitan area radio. He added a populist flavor to his commentary on the stock market and spoke in a thick Brooklyn accent...
billion finding microsoft portfolio seen selling
This is the first day of the month, you may have seen some end-of-the-month portfolio selling dissipating, ... And this is the day that Microsoft is distributing $33 billion in cash, so there is some anticipation of that finding its way back to the market.
last selling snap week
The selling last week was so extreme, there had to be a snap back.
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Negative guidance from Intel kicked off a new selling wave in beleaguered technology, while the February job figures turned out to be strong enough to raise some doubts about aggressive Federal Reserve ease.
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In technology, I think the semiconductors, semiconductor equipment makers, and the companies that sell you electronic gear look attractive.
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When you see this kind of quick move, that's a mechanical sell program from one of the brokerages.
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I also like Tandy ( TAN : Research , Estimates ). They sell all the electronic gear that is so exciting on the dip.
history hour market mood sells stock taking
However, the history of the stock market is that everyone sells into the strength. So I'll be taking it one hour at a time. I'm in a show-me mood today.
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The basic problem this week has been the arrival of third quarter earnings and the non response,
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These surveys give regional snapshots, and that's all they do. I'd never even heard of the Empire State survey until recently -- and I don't think you can build the case that Wall Street sits there panting, waiting for the results.
conditions dismal
It was a pretty dismal day. We're really in oversold conditions at this point.
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The key this morning is the 10-year note hovering around a yield of 5%. This news trumps any economic or earnings data. It's a rate-driven market, even with oil competing for headlines. Any weakness we may see will be due to these bond yields.
asset mergers money people putting taking
The mergers helped, but you also had some asset reallocation, with people taking money out of Treasurys and putting it into equities.
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The Microsoft delay has hurt the Nasdaq and will reverberate throughout all of technology. That will be today's big headline. We closed ragged yesterday, so we're going to have a tired market to start.
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The two major hurdles continue to be oil and interest rates on the Treasuries. The market has demonstrated through the first quarter that we can snap back.