Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
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Today, (consumers) are beginning to realize they have to do some buying, but there isn't that much money yet after gas and what they've already bought at Wal-Mart.
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There are two conflicting forces at work on the consumer. One is people have jobs, they have money, the unemployment rate is still at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent, a lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable. A lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable, people have money and jobs, but they don't have as high a discretionary spending level as they did a year ago.
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With gas prices the way they are and with people suddenly being burdened with monthly car payments, they are looking for bargains. People are taking their money from Bloomingdale's to Penney, Kohl's (NYSE: KSS - news ) and Target (NYSE: TGT - news ).
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What we are seeing is that consumers' cautious spending is now stretching to the low-priced discount stores as well as to the other stores. ...Today, saving money is chic. Bargain hunting is fashionable.
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Consumers have turned cautious. They have stopped buying things frivolously. Consumers do spend money today, but they will buy only what they need, will insist on good quality and fashion. But they will buy cautiously, and not buy extravagantly.
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It seems to be that a lot of these large chains are gravitating toward the advantages inherent in joint buying and obtaining lower prices and saving a lot of money in the process, ... ...It is very likely to be a powerful weapon in the retailer's arsenal to reduce the cost of buying and operating. And given the world of the Internet, which makes possible these alliances, it has to be recognized that consumers will find it so much easier these days to compare prices because all they have to do is click away.
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Americans, for one reason or another, have not given up on their infatuation with SUVs that guzzle gas by the gallons. But there's only so much money to go around. If people are paying more to drive their cars, they will have less money to spend on other things.
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Are consumers buying more? I don't know. I think what Wal-Mart said about people spending less of the rebate money this year in stores is significant. It shows people prefer to save any extra money than spend it.
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Kmart's earnings were lower than a year ago, and the reason why they were lower is because there is a lot of money being invested in infrastructure. But it's going to pay huge dividends in the future, ... Kmart is finally very excellently positioned to turn around and create a very strong place in the sun.
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If you stash money away in a savings account, then there's less available to buy things in a store, from candy to cars. This is not quite the conventional retrenchment we've known from past recessions, but it may represent a kind of wishy-washy stagnation.
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What the Gap is doing is not only what it must be doing, but what it should have done a long time ago.
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What's happening is very simple. The numbers we saw today are clear evidence that the American public is shell-shocked to the point of being frightened over a big long list of circumstances surrounding the economy over which they have no power, no control.
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The worst part of these results is that they show that the effect of the tax rebate checks has petered out. This is a nightmare in itself for retailers and it doesn't bode well for Christmas. Also, we'll probably see more markdowns now, more than retailers anticipated for the holidays. That will hurt their bottom line.
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They are all planning very cautiously, very carefully. Some companies have very decent inventory controls, but however good those controls are they still have to do some economic forecasting, and forecasting is a little difficult this time around. Nobody is going to spring for big orders until there's evidence that consumer demand is back, and there is no such evidence to date.