Kevin Norrish
Kevin Norrish
continued four gather last level normal oil patterns politics relative risen shadows
U.S. oil inventories have risen rapidly, relative to normal patterns over the last four weeks. At the level of politics and geopolitical risks, the shadows have continued to gather and darken.
consumers dependence dispute edge emphasize energy european gas immediate impact issue potential prices russian served supplies western whilst
Whilst the immediate impact on European energy prices has been negligible, the dispute has served to emphasize the dependence of Western Europe on Russian gas supplies and the issue has the potential to keep European gas consumers on edge for some time.
firm meet million projects stream
There are not enough firm projects on stream to meet 1.5 million bpd (demand growth).
absolute consumed energy fall fossil fuels share
The share of fossil fuels (in China's energy use) may fall but the absolute amounts consumed will grow.
both china countries crude demand energy help india issue prices seem seen stage western
India and China are big importers of crude oil, and they're both at the stage of their development where they're energy intensive, ... We have seen no pullback in demand in those countries, or in western countries --demand doesn't seem to be an issue that would help keep prices in check.
chinese demand exert further growth highly likely looks oil pressure slow supply
After such a slow 2005 for Chinese oil demand an acceleration in growth looks highly likely in 2006 and this will exert further pressure on oil supply and prices.
continue currently external iran key major matters oil prices relations remain risk situation upside wild
Iran matters more than is currently priced in and Iran's external relations remain the key wild card. We continue to see the situation as representing the major upside risk for oil prices this year.
breaks cut explicitly highest per price record
At US$63.92 per barrel, this breaks the record for the highest WTI price at which a cut has been explicitly called for.
benign chances coming iranian issue market matter months nuclear recent sharp time
It's only a matter of time before geopolitical developments give the market another sharp tug. The chances of a benign settlement in coming months over the Iranian nuclear issue have receded in recent weeks.
behind changes easy inventory strong sucked weekly
It's easy to get sucked into weekly changes in inventory level, but behind that, we still have very strong demand.
both demand erosion massive mild moving sides time weather
It's moving up and down. We've got an erosion of the idea that there has been massive demand destruction while ... at the same time you have got some pretty mild weather on both sides of the Atlantic.
dramatic explosive increase oil prices rise seen spread
It's because we've had such an explosive rise in heating oil prices -- I don't think we've ever seen such a dramatic increase in the spread between heating oil and crude.
nigerian potential run situation
The Nigerian situation has the potential to get a lot worse. It's going to run and run.
buying definitely oil order resources ship
This is definitely not about buying up oil resources in order to ship the oil into China.