Kevin Logan
Kevin Logan
inventory run
You can only run down inventory for so long.
additional change dividends income patterns people save small spending stimulus
The stimulus to spending will probably be small because a lot of people that get dividends are already well-off, and any additional retained income they'll have may not change their spending patterns much -- they may just save more.
due energy higher increase played prices role
Prices played a big role here. A lot of the increase was due to higher energy prices, particularly for oil.
damaging decided events global intense lowest market might military nearly people pricing prior stock
Prior to the war, the stock market was at its lowest because people were pricing in a more intense military conflict, which hasn't happened, ... The market has decided that these events weren't nearly as damaging as they might have been to the global economy.
change data hike next rate week
We have the FOMC next week where a rate hike is a foregone conclusion. Today's data didn't change that,
annual consumer estimate grew percent possibly retail sales seven spending
Seven percent is not an unreasonable estimate for GDP growth. Retail sales were strong, especially with the revisions. Consumer spending possibly grew 12 percent at an annual rate. That's really charging right along.
annual consumer estimate grew percent possibly retail sales seven spending
Seven percent is not an unreasonable estimate for GDP growth, ... Retail sales were strong, especially with the revisions. Consumer spending possibly grew 12 percent at an annual rate. That's really charging right along.
although bit likely pace slow
What it suggests is that the pace of growth, although pretty robust, is likely to slow a bit going forward.
consumers general grow guide level reliable shows slower spending though
This shows the general level of apprehension gripping consumers now. Though it's not a reliable guide to what consumers will do, it does hint that spending will grow at a slower pace.
growth
The real story here is the (slower) growth of consumption in the quarter.
changed current eventually impact lead people price seems
This seems to have more impact on people's expectations than current conditions. What changed was the price of gasoline, and people know that that can eventually lead to some kind of slowdown.
affect bother clearly confidence consumer employment events main war
It's going to bother consumers. When you look at consumer confidence over time, the main things that affect it are employment and income; but there are other events that can affect confidence, if only temporarily, and war is clearly one of them.
couple depends economy fourth influence learn next quarter
It (the fourth quarter GDP report) has no influence on next week's decision, so it really depends on what they learn about the economy over the next couple of months.
lack people risk thin
It's a very thin market. People don't want to take any risk because of the lack of liquidity.