Kevin Logan
Kevin Logan
damaging decided events global intense lowest market might military nearly people pricing prior stock
Prior to the war, the stock market was at its lowest because people were pricing in a more intense military conflict, which hasn't happened, ... The market has decided that these events weren't nearly as damaging as they might have been to the global economy.
additional change dividends income patterns people save small spending stimulus
The stimulus to spending will probably be small because a lot of people that get dividends are already well-off, and any additional retained income they'll have may not change their spending patterns much -- they may just save more.
beginning date far housing indication market sales situation
So this is more up to date as far as the situation in the housing market is concerned. It is a better indication that housing sales are beginning to slow.
growth
The real story here is the (slower) growth of consumption in the quarter.
annual consumer estimate grew percent possibly retail sales seven spending
Seven percent is not an unreasonable estimate for GDP growth. Retail sales were strong, especially with the revisions. Consumer spending possibly grew 12 percent at an annual rate. That's really charging right along.
annual consumer estimate grew percent possibly retail sales seven spending
Seven percent is not an unreasonable estimate for GDP growth, ... Retail sales were strong, especially with the revisions. Consumer spending possibly grew 12 percent at an annual rate. That's really charging right along.
changed current eventually impact lead people price seems
This seems to have more impact on people's expectations than current conditions. What changed was the price of gasoline, and people know that that can eventually lead to some kind of slowdown.
consumers general grow guide level reliable shows slower spending though
This shows the general level of apprehension gripping consumers now. Though it's not a reliable guide to what consumers will do, it does hint that spending will grow at a slower pace.
beginning few flattened higher interest last months prices rates rise sales seem sideways slow tend
For the last few months or so sales seem to have flattened out. This may be the beginning of a sideways movement. The rise in short-term interest rates and higher prices tend to slow down the turnover of houses.
businesses cut finding growing hire profits raise revenue unable
All through the economy, businesses are finding they're unable to raise prices, so revenues are not growing in the way they would have liked. Without revenue growth, they're not going to grow profits. The only way to grow profits then is to cut costs, and the only way to do that is to not hire workers.
claims lower weather
The jobless claims were lower because the weather was good.
areas economy happens housing less likely market rates reflection resources rising shifting system works
The housing market is likely to do less well, but that happens as resources are shifting back to areas where there's more remuneration -- such as manufacturing and services. That's how the system works -- rising rates are a reflection of how the economy is going to do.
inventory run
You can only run down inventory for so long.
business indicator lending picks stock
This is more of a contemporaneous indicator -- if business picks up and firms find they need to stock more inventory, we will see lending pick up.