Ken Tower
Ken Tower
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The Fed is going to have a hard time stopping their (rate) increases if the economy seems to be gaining strength.
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The Fed is going to have a hard time stopping their increases if the economy seems to be gaining strength. I think the Fed will have a very hard time talking down the inflation hawks if the data comes in stronger than expected.
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The recent stock rally was fueled by the idea that the Fed is nearly done and I am concerned that such a hope could be in trouble. If the economy is growing faster than investors are expecting, that could be a problem.
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You're seeing the fast money shift around a bit, and short term, that's good for stocks. Longer term, you have to consider that at some point, energy prices are going to catch up to the economy and the market.
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A capitalist economy goes through cycles, and 2000 was the peak in the latest cycle, which had lots of similarities to the 1960s and the 1920s. Now we're somewhere in this sort of troublesome period like the 1970s.
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It's not that everything is perfect. But the overall tone of the economy and the level of both consumer and corporate confidence is quite high.
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In my experience the market doesn't remain trapped in that kind of narrow trading range for long. So expect the market to break out. But which way?
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I'm left with the sense that this is a trading-range market, not a larger decline. The major averages are now coming down to their late August lows, which are presumably the low end of this trading range. There wasn't any real sign of a reversal yesterday, but support is nearby and downside leadership is poor.
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There's this almost universal sense that we're in this big cap-ex spending cycle and the big stocks should be moving on that, but they haven't been.
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The correction is likely to go on for another month or two, ... before there's really a compelling reason for investors and traders to move more money from the sidelines into the markets.
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If (Microsoft) can stay above 80, then the whole broad sector of technology stocks may have bottomed out this week and had a re-test low and be ready to turn higher.
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They haven't so much moved their money out of the markets as they have moved it from one place to another.
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What's happening in front of us right now is discouraging, but the market's telling us that these will be short-term disruptions.
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And Wrigley has been very strong for some time, continues to move higher, ... Just had another breakout to a new high. There are lots of stocks in this market that are doing quite well. They just aren't technology stocks.