Ken Tower
Ken Tower
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The Fed is going to have a hard time stopping their increases if the economy seems to be gaining strength. I think the Fed will have a very hard time talking down the inflation hawks if the data comes in stronger than expected.
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The correction is likely to go on for another month or two, ... before there's really a compelling reason for investors and traders to move more money from the sidelines into the markets.
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I'm left with the sense that this is a trading-range market, not a larger decline. The major averages are now coming down to their late August lows, which are presumably the low end of this trading range. There wasn't any real sign of a reversal yesterday, but support is nearby and downside leadership is poor.
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If (Microsoft) can stay above 80, then the whole broad sector of technology stocks may have bottomed out this week and had a re-test low and be ready to turn higher.
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If there were really fundamental problems out there, the market would drop much more quickly. Instead, it can't get out of its own way. It's pushing a big boulder up the hill, and then it slides back down at the end of the day. It's just unable to really get any momentum going.
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A new Fed chairman is an unknown and as such offers nervous investors an excuse to sell.
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As far as we can tell, the bull market is alive and well.
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At this point, any rally is a good rally. You need to see more strength in the Nasdaq to confirm that there really was a significant bottom, but there are an awful lot of stocks doing very well.
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At this moment the Fed would like to stop raising rates. But if the employment cost index shows too much wage inflation, then the inflation hawks will make it hard for them to stop.
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And Wrigley has been very strong for some time, continues to move higher, ... Just had another breakout to a new high. There are lots of stocks in this market that are doing quite well. They just aren't technology stocks.
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Employment cost is below expectations, which should encourage the Federal Reserve at next week's meeting to maintain a balanced approach.
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It's only Chinese water torture to people who hold the Dow. For those in the Nasdaq it's an incredible party.
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The whole tech sector jumped after the IBM announcement and it may spark a rally tomorrow. But it's one piece of good news. Could the impact be erased by a subsequent piece of bad news between now and tomorrow? Sure.
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These are things that people can be nervous about and, yes, they're concerns. But let's face it: the world has trouble almost every day. It's probably not a major factor for our market.