Ken Tower
Ken Tower
demand prices supply
It's all about supply and demand, and if you've got no demand for stocks, prices are going lower.
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It's not that everything is perfect. But the overall tone of the economy and the level of both consumer and corporate confidence is quite high.
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For many, the bullish case for next year is partly dependent on the Fed stopping its rate hiking. But historically, the Fed stopping isn't necessarily bullish for stocks. It's when the Fed lowers rates that it's bullish.
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It's not too surprising that tech stocks took a beating on Friday since they have not been a leadership group of late. While tech has been languishing, basic materials, energy and industrial stocks have been reaching new highs. These may be tiring, but it seems too early to abandon them yet.
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It's only Chinese water torture to people who hold the Dow. For those in the Nasdaq it's an incredible party.
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We are at the top of a trading range. Everyone's willing to be bullish, but is the cash there to provide the energy the bulls need? Or is the December high the high-water mark? Dow 11,000 is one of the hooks the bulls will use to try and attract more money into the market.
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We are at a major crossroads here. If we are unable to break out of this trading range to the upside soon, then there is a danger that we could quickly slide back down again to the lows.
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There is no person on the planet who is going to be able to fill Greenspan's spot without a test, ... I'm not sure that it's a coincidence that the market crash of 1987 happened two months after Greenspan took office.
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Investors remain skeptical of the rally that began in April. Therefore, the rally could restart.
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Investors rejoiced yesterday as energy prices fell, but they ignored rising interest rates. I don't think it will be too long before the focus shifts back to rising rates and an inverted yield curve.
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If there were really fundamental problems out there, the market would drop much more quickly. Instead, it can't get out of its own way. It's pushing a big boulder up the hill, and then it slides back down at the end of the day. It's just unable to really get any momentum going.
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Finally, the market got a reaction after that water torture of a decline in July. People reacted, which is very good in terms of looking for a bottom.
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Financials led the sector rally yesterday. Tech has been getting a lot of bullish press recently, but its relative performance continues to suffer. It's premature to put this into the leading sector category.
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The presumption is the bond market is smarter than the stock market. I'm not saying it's always true, but there's a reason that the bond market tends to lead the stock market.