Ken Perkins
Ken Perkins
apparel august bulk consumers indication month positive provide sales showing signs spending strongest
August is the big month because that's when the bulk of the back-to-school revenues are generated, ... But we got some very positive signs in July, especially with apparel sales showing the strongest monthly gains. Apparel sales are important because they provide the first indication of how consumers are spending their discretionary income.
expect given last red seen september stellar weakness
After a stellar September for retailers, it was a given to expect some weakness last month. But this is pretty amazing. I don't think I've seen this much red on the board.
bad far january numbers surprise turning
January is turning out to be a real surprise to the positive. So far the same-store numbers that we're getting aren't bad at all.
cheaper discount hurting impact marginal products stores
Is Wal-Mart also hurting its business? I think cheaper products at the discount stores did have a marginal impact on the company's sales.
happening housing levels market seems spending
If the housing market just levels off, which seems to be happening right now, we'll be OK. But if there's a precipitous drop, then spending could really fall.
arrival boost clearly consumer cooler falling gas gave last late october prices weather weeks
Clearly falling gas prices coupled with the late arrival of cooler weather in the last two weeks of October gave a boost to consumer spending.
appear consumers economic energy future growth high hurting job prices regarding situation
High energy prices coupled with uncertainty regarding future economic growth and the job situation appear to be disproportionately impacting low-end consumers and hurting sales.
concerned earnings hit investors sales unless
That's a pretty long stretch, and investors are concerned that earnings could take a hit unless sales improve.
baked cake expected good news numbers quarter rally results second
If numbers are better than expected and the news is good for second quarter outlooks, then we could rally on that. But I think the results are pretty much baked into the cake here.
beat broader came companies concerned low miss surprised
I'm concerned that Wal-Mart could be the harbinger of some broader weakness. With everything they had going for them, Wal-Mart still came in at the low end of a not-very-aggressive plan. I wouldn't be surprised if we'll see more companies miss expectations than beat expectations.
cold consumer experience good likely oil price prices remains sign spending winter
If the price of oil remains between $45 to $50 a barrel, that's not a good sign especially if we experience a very cold winter. Heating oil prices will go up and that's likely to dampen consumer spending during the winter months.
analyst nightmare numbers october
These numbers are not good. As one analyst put it, October will be the nightmare before Christmas.
disaster either line mean results season sort
If results are in line with expectations, that would mean the season was okay. It wouldn't be a blowout, but it wouldn't be a disaster either -- just sort of ho-hum. So, we'll see what happens.
companies earnings gas handful hearing instead nice raise saw
Instead of hearing about gas woes, we actually saw a handful of companies raise their earnings estimates. That was a nice surprise.