Ken Mayland
Ken Mayland
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Consumers are still willing to spend, even with the high energy prices, and capital investment is booming. By the second half of the year, we'll see the cumulative effect of interest- rate increases begin to bite and the economy slow.
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Considering everything, I think the picture is a little bit brighter for the second quarter and some of our fears on the economy in context of this soft patch scare are at least slightly alleviated.
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Holy Katrina! The economy weathered two major hurricanes and in spite of that showed accelerated growth. I think what this shows is that fundamentally the economy was and is in really good shape.
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I fully expect the economy to bounce back strongly in the first quarter. Auto sales will be stronger and inventories are still very lean, which points to a better first quarter.
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The consumer is still in there slugging away. There is no reason to think the consumer is going to pull back into some shell and go away.
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What the Commerce Department calls savings is something different from what ordinary people call savings. Commerce calls savings basically current income not spent, whereas individuals call their savings really their wealth, their accumulation of all past savings.
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Fed members are worried about inflation. To raise the fears of inflation is in effect telling us they are going to continue to raise interest rates. Probably not just once more but repeatedly.
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This employment report neither screams tighten further nor shouts stop here. More information from other indicators is needed to determine the proper course of policy.
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Auto sales at these monstrous levels, these gargantuan levels, cannot be sustained. They will come back to normal levels.
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Any long-term plan without an education component isn't a complete plan. We are seeing a brain drain.
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These results cast more cold water on the notion that if nondiscretionary spending on energy swells, it must crimp discretionary spending. It hasn't,
cast cold energy notion results spending water
These results cast more cold water on the notion that if non-discretionary spending on energy swells, it must crimp discretionary spending. It hasn't.
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As we get into the month of July, it is always a difficult and very volatile period for initial claims.
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The most encouraging signs in the December report was that inventories declined in an absolute sense and at a faster rate. That implies a need for future restocking and that should be a good sign for January, February and March.