Ken Mayland
Ken Mayland
begin bite capital consumers cumulative economy effect energy half high increases investment rate second willing
Consumers are still willing to spend, even with the high energy prices, and capital investment is booming. By the second half of the year, we'll see the cumulative effect of interest- rate increases begin to bite and the economy slow.
continue effect fears fed inflation interest members raise telling worried
Fed members are worried about inflation. To raise the fears of inflation is in effect telling us they are going to continue to raise interest rates. Probably not just once more but repeatedly.
basically call calls commerce current department income ordinary past people savings whereas
What the Commerce Department calls savings is something different from what ordinary people call savings. Commerce calls savings basically current income not spent, whereas individuals call their savings really their wealth, their accumulation of all past savings.
capacity good goods grinding increases industrial produce producing
We're grinding out some good increases here. We're producing more than we ever did and our capacity to produce industrial goods has increased.
confidence energy fact heart higher housing interest market moved rates slowing worries
I think we can take heart in the fact that even with all the worries -- about energy prices, higher interest rates and a slowing housing market -- confidence moved higher.
associated below definitely good growth job number track
I think any number below 350,000 is associated with good job growth. I think we are definitely getting back on track for fundamentally good job generation.
consumers decline indication inevitable month particular retail sales
It is inevitable that we will see a 1% or 1.5% decline in retail sales in an upcoming month as consumers become sated with new vehicles. ... This will not be an indication of any particular vulnerability.
flat impression reading
If anything, this is a pause. My impression is that manufacturing is doing better than the flat reading suggests.
bills bleak deal disrupted fear gasoline great hand home lives pay people sad view worrying
There is a great deal of fear and uncertainty out there. On the one hand it's sad to see peoples' lives disrupted and destroyed. On the other hand, people are worrying about how they are going to pay their gasoline bills and their home heating bills this winter. It makes for a pretty bleak view of the future.
north price
We are not there yet. I think anything north of 83 percent, we could see price pressures.
definitely fed funds neutral
We are definitely in the neighborhood of a neutral fed funds rate.
cast cold energy notion results spending water
These results cast more cold water on the notion that if nondiscretionary spending on energy swells, it must crimp discretionary spending. It hasn't,
cast cold energy notion results spending water
These results cast more cold water on the notion that if non-discretionary spending on energy swells, it must crimp discretionary spending. It hasn't.
economy economy-and-economics good holy major shows spite weathered
Holy Katrina! The economy weathered two major hurricanes and in spite of that showed accelerated growth. I think what this shows is that fundamentally the economy was and is in really good shape.