Ken Mayland
Ken Mayland
continue effect fears fed inflation interest members raise telling worried
Fed members are worried about inflation. To raise the fears of inflation is in effect telling us they are going to continue to raise interest rates. Probably not just once more but repeatedly.
begin bite capital consumers cumulative economy effect energy half high increases investment rate second willing
Consumers are still willing to spend, even with the high energy prices, and capital investment is booming. By the second half of the year, we'll see the cumulative effect of interest- rate increases begin to bite and the economy slow.
consumer pull reason shell
The consumer is still in there slugging away. There is no reason to think the consumer is going to pull back into some shell and go away.
basically call calls commerce current department income ordinary past people savings whereas
What the Commerce Department calls savings is something different from what ordinary people call savings. Commerce calls savings basically current income not spent, whereas individuals call their savings really their wealth, their accumulation of all past savings.
course determine employment further information needed neither nor proper report screams shouts stop
This employment report neither screams tighten further nor shouts stop here. More information from other indicators is needed to determine the proper course of policy.
auto cannot monstrous normal sales
Auto sales at these monstrous levels, these gargantuan levels, cannot be sustained. They will come back to normal levels.
brain complete component education plan seeing
Any long-term plan without an education component isn't a complete plan. We are seeing a brain drain.
cast cold energy notion results spending water
These results cast more cold water on the notion that if nondiscretionary spending on energy swells, it must crimp discretionary spending. It hasn't,
cast cold energy notion results spending water
These results cast more cold water on the notion that if non-discretionary spending on energy swells, it must crimp discretionary spending. It hasn't.
difficult initial month period volatile
As we get into the month of July, it is always a difficult and very volatile period for initial claims.
absolute december declined faster february future good implies report signs
The most encouraging signs in the December report was that inventories declined in an absolute sense and at a faster rate. That implies a need for future restocking and that should be a good sign for January, February and March.
auto department largely malls means reflecting research stores time
It's largely reflecting the time constraints on the part of shoppers. Doing all the test-driving and research at auto dealers means that they are not at malls and department stores and restaurants.
consumer decrease fed knock prices
It's going to take more that a one-month decrease in consumer prices to knock the Fed off it rate-rise bandwagon.
growth rebuilding spur
There will be a lot of rebuilding that is going to need to occur. These things do spur GDP growth.