Ken Mayland
Ken Mayland
auto department largely malls means reflecting research stores time
It's largely reflecting the time constraints on the part of shoppers. Doing all the test-driving and research at auto dealers means that they are not at malls and department stores and restaurants.
auto cannot monstrous normal sales
Auto sales at these monstrous levels, these gargantuan levels, cannot be sustained. They will come back to normal levels.
auto bounce economy economy-and-economics expect fully points sales stronger strongly
I fully expect the economy to bounce back strongly in the first quarter. Auto sales will be stronger and inventories are still very lean, which points to a better first quarter.
basically call calls commerce current department income ordinary past people savings whereas
What the Commerce Department calls savings is something different from what ordinary people call savings. Commerce calls savings basically current income not spent, whereas individuals call their savings really their wealth, their accumulation of all past savings.
cast cold energy notion results spending water
These results cast more cold water on the notion that if nondiscretionary spending on energy swells, it must crimp discretionary spending. It hasn't,
cast cold energy notion results spending water
These results cast more cold water on the notion that if non-discretionary spending on energy swells, it must crimp discretionary spending. It hasn't.
continue effect fears fed inflation interest members raise telling worried
Fed members are worried about inflation. To raise the fears of inflation is in effect telling us they are going to continue to raise interest rates. Probably not just once more but repeatedly.
north price
We are not there yet. I think anything north of 83 percent, we could see price pressures.
flat impression reading
If anything, this is a pause. My impression is that manufacturing is doing better than the flat reading suggests.
difference family level sales
It's not just that the sales level was down but look at the difference between single-family and condos.
fed figures raising rates stay stop
Does the Fed stop raising rates after March? No. If these figures stay hot, they are going to keep raising.
capital consumer fourth government gulf increases inventory quarter rebuilding spending takes
Consumer spending in the fourth quarter is going to be low, and capital spending and inventory rebuilding is what takes up the slack. There are also increases in government purchases, a lot of that going for Gulf reconstruction.
begin bite capital consumers cumulative economy effect energy half high increases investment rate second willing
Consumers are still willing to spend, even with the high energy prices, and capital investment is booming. By the second half of the year, we'll see the cumulative effect of interest- rate increases begin to bite and the economy slow.
bit brighter context economy fears patch picture quarter scare second slightly soft
Considering everything, I think the picture is a little bit brighter for the second quarter and some of our fears on the economy in context of this soft patch scare are at least slightly alleviated.