Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein, also known as Kene G and Jack Dempsey, born June 1969, is an American film and television writer, producer, director and occasional actor. He is a co-founder of Planet illogica and CEO of The Six Shooter Company and the author of the book series, The Way of the Nerd. Goldstein is an active speaker at conferences and festivals, universities and private and public institutions. He has been a featured and Keynote speaker in Brazil, Australia, France and Germany...
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The September data indicate a general weakening in the job picture nationwide -- a trend we were seeing before the recent hurricanes, ... That data is consistent with the latest CEO Confidence Survey, which is also down.
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The recovery in the leading index could indicate that the economy is poised for growth by late summer. There appears to be enough economic demand to end the slide in industrial production, though no strong rebound appears in sight.
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Today's conditions are similar to those prevailing in the late 1980s, when there were also widespread reports of jobs available and no one to fill them.
continue economy economy-and-economics expand later signal slowing spring
This could be a signal that the economy will continue to expand this spring before slowing later in the year.
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Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.
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If we were starting from scratch and had to put all these systems in, that would be costly, but the incremental cost of making sure we have the latest version of protection against the latest version of a virus is not really that much.
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The indicators may be signaling a spurt of growth ahead, perhaps in the spring, which could be followed by a slower pace of activity later in 2006.
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The latest readings on print want-ad volume suggest that job growth won't reach the 200,000-a-month pace for at least the next few months.
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The latest leading indicator readings suggest some slowing in the pace of economic activity through this summer.
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We might still be seeing some small declines in manufacturing overall, but even that's a mix. This year you'll see more hiring in nondurable manufacturing sectors such as in chemicals, in rubber, in plastics, in paper.
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These data suggest the post-holiday labor market will remain relatively soft -- probably delivering a little less than 200,000 new jobs a month on average.
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The storms and flooding, and now the rebuilding and dislocations in the Gulf Coast area, are taking place in a weakening national labor market.
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The small but consistent decreases in the past three-month period certainly point to a second-half economic performance less robust than in the first half of 2000. With employment and income still rising, there will be growth, but not at the pace set earlier in the year.
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The strong signal from the indicators means that the recession could be over soon. Three successive monthly increases, each larger than the one before, bring the level of the leading series above the pre-recession peak.