Joshua Feinman
Joshua Feinman
Joshua "Josh" Feinmanis an American film and television actor with appearances in Men of Honor, Transformers, and Mr. Woodcock...
along bit continued early economy ended further gulf happen persian process similar though took war work
It's a little bit analogous to the early 1990s, in that, when the Persian Gulf War ended then, the economy did not come storming back -- it took a while because it continued to work off its problems. Something similar could happen this time, though the economy is a little further along now in its process of unwinding than it was then.
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It's already been working to dampen demand and cut into purchasing power. The longer it stays here, the longer that impact will last.
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The United States has been the engine of global growth for some time. It would behoove the world if other engines were to develop, but it doesn't look like that's happening. As long as that's the case, U.S. growth will mostly be determined by what happens here.
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They are a bit more sanguine about inflation than the market has been, and they've been trying to tell people that. It doesn't mean they have their head stuck in the sand. With the last sentence of their statement, they leave themselves plenty of flexibility.
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These data reinforce the notion that, while consumption is going to be slower in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter, it doesn't look like the consumer is raising the white flag and giving up.
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Companies have the wherewithal to pick up the pace of hiring and capital investment again, but I'm not sure they have the desire, for a variety of reasons -- including their outlook on future demand.
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I think it's encouraging that three weeks in a row we've been below 400,000. I think it suggests the labor market may be strengthening a little bit.
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To get faster job growth, we're going to need either faster aggregate demand, which seems hard to fathom, or we're going to need some diminution of the recent extra cyclical pop in productivity, ... When will that start? Anybody who says they know is lying.
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We've been waiting for something like this for a long time. But we need to resist the temptation to put too much weight on any one month's report -- probably the best thing to do is to average out the past few months; that gives a clearer picture.
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Businesses were liquidating inventory last fall at a frenetic pace and adding to weakness in the economy's production. It looks like the rate of inventory liquidation is starting to slow, and a basis is forming from that reduction for a rise in the economy.
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If the economy roars back, you can always take the cuts back. But suppose you're wrong on the other side, and the economy continues to languish? With the slack already in the markets, inflation is likely to move lower still.
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If firms need pricing power, they should be clamoring for the highest possible rates of inflation. Firms don't have pricing power, but they can still make money, and a lot of it.
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Before the storm struck, (the Fed) thought the economy was on sound footing, ... I don't think that's changed. The only thing Katrina may have done is raise some uncertainty about the near-term outlook.
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The irony is that in the 1970s and 1980s, we were trying to get to that world again. We're darn close to price stability now.