Joseph LaVorgna
Joseph LaVorgna
bias continue expecting further higher interest maintain market
I think if (FOMC members) maintain the bias (toward higher interest rates), the market will continue to be jittery, expecting further tightening. Of course, the wording of the announcement will also be important.
commonly consumers continue income job money prospects spend tells
While consumers are forking over a lot of money on gasoline, they continue to spend elsewhere, ... This tells us that job and income prospects are better than what is commonly understood.
both continues existing factory fast further grow healthy increases industrial production sector
The factory sector continues to grow at a fast rate, probably further absorbing existing capacity. We look for healthy increases in both industrial production and factory usage.
current environment optimistic people somewhat telling
People are telling you they are still somewhat optimistic about the future, but the current environment is lousy.
break chairman
We do not think the chairman will break new ground.
bouncing concerned consumer hard overly spending
We aren't overly concerned by this slowdown. It's hard to see consumer spending not bouncing back in the first quarter.
higher labor looks market next quite seek yields
Treasuries are going to seek higher yields over the next weeks. The labor market looks quite healthy.
adding crowd cusp everybody extended fed imminent notion oil proving thinking
It's just adding to the notion that the Fed is on the cusp of an imminent and extended pause. It's proving what everybody was thinking -- the I-told-you-so crowd -- that oil is going to weaken things.
bottom cut definitely fed good market maybe means move price rates reinforced stock therefore waited
What I think this means is that the Fed waited maybe for the stock market to go up a little and then cut rates and effectively reinforced the price action. Therefore it set a bottom on stocks, but it's definitely a very good move I think for the Fed.
sake financial wealth
The financial wealth that has been created is unprecedented. Even if the stock market, for argument's sake, leveled off here, there's been so much wealth built up that we really can feel spending for some time.
bottom contained growth inflation line picture remains underlying
The bottom line is that the underlying picture of above-trend growth and contained inflation remains intact.
economy economy-and-economics landing soft weak whether worried
I think it's probably them worried more just about a very weak economy than whether it's a soft landing or a recession. But the Fed, they don't really care. They just want to see the economy get back up.
bid bonds fed finishing maybe rate talked toward
The Fed is toward the end of its rate hikes. Equities and bonds got a bid because the Fed talked about maybe finishing its tightening.
figures retail sales softer
The retail sales figures were really soft, much softer than expected.