Joseph Battipaglia
Joseph Battipaglia
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CPI data was benign but the data was prior to Hurricane Katrina, ... Still, no one is quite sure about what the Fed is going to do going ahead. So the market is not showing much conviction.
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We have a lot of difficulty with the telecom service sector, ... It looks like the bad news is localized in that company and that sector. We're at a point where most of the major shocks have been had and the market action today, after the gains over the last few days, is very constructive.
cap leading market names
When you look at how the market is trading, the big cap names in the right sectors are leading the market,
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The real story is how well the U.S. economy is performing, ... Brazil is important, but I think we're seeing the end of the emerging markets crisis, not the beginning.
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The bond market still believes that the Fed is an inflation fighter, the bond market still believes that there really isn't inflation today, and they applaud the moves by the Fed to be ready for future,
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What happens with Iraq is very important in January and February to pretty much set the tone for how the economy will fare for the rest of the year. So when we have that answer, then you can get your market direction. In the meantime, you essentially move sideways.
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We're in this transition period right now, getting ready for interest rates to start rising, which will happen June 30, and for second-quarter profit reporting season to start, which will be early July, ... Those things could get the market going again.
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Oil prices at these levels are providing all kinds of dislocation issues for stocks. Earnings and the economic data are O.K., but with oil where it is, the market is unable to make a decision, long or short, and there's certainly no real catalyst for buying.
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I think there's a real lack of commitment in the market right now from both institutional and individual investors,
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The rally over the past five weeks needed confirmation in the data that the economy is coming along. As long as that data remain inconclusive, the market will be dominated by sellers.
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Investors are not put off now by the onslaught of disappointing earnings expectations. I think we're well through the inflection point where the market will continue to recover, even though earnings estimates will continue to be cut for the next several months.
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I don't see them getting much worse than 6-1/4 percent on the long end, ... The overall bond market is not completely convinced that we're going to see meaningful higher interest rates. Something is going to give here, and my sense is that the Fed is not going beyond this second cut.
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The economy has proved itself to be vibrant. Inflation is clearly in the bottle. The dollar is back on track. Japan is struggling again. The Europeans want to get out of recession. Rates don't go up in that environment. We've got a market that is going to go off of earnings with a lot of positive momentum and start to hit new highs.
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The market is struggling for new direction. Each new piece of information on the economy is giving mixed signals,