John Shin
John Shin
costs expecting inflation kick pressure wage
Inflation costs have been pretty moderate, but we are expecting wage pressure to kick in by the end of the year.
change continued deficits dominant factor growth large relative rest stronger terms trade
There is still significantly stronger growth in the U.S. relative to the rest of the world. That's been the dominant factor in terms of continued large trade deficits and that's not going to change much this year.
bigger bill coming deficits fears finally outlook trade whether
There will be some bigger fears about whether the bill for years and years of trade deficits is finally coming due. The outlook is for continued, big current-account deficits.
focused highest impact katrina last less since spring stronger
This is stronger than expected, the highest since spring of last year. But it's less important since it doesn't show anything about the impact of Katrina and everyone's focused on Katrina right now.
below change claims expectation fell though
This doesn't do anything to change the expectation for payrolls tomorrow, even though it is eye-catching that claims fell below 300,000.
consistent cooling data gradual housing
The data are consistent with very gradual cooling in the housing market.
basis continuing fed funny keeps number pause points quickly raising sentiment soon track
It's pretty funny how quickly sentiment can swing, but I think it's too soon for the Fed to pause (in raising rates). This morning's number keeps the Fed on track continuing 25 basis points (quarter-point) hikes.
amount coverage disaster enormous katrina reflect
It really does reflect the enormous amount of coverage of the Katrina disaster.
bears
We feel that such a possibility is still a long way off, but it is a development that bears watching.
bit fed inflation people risks talking thinking
This will get people thinking a little bit more about the inflation risks the Fed has been talking about.
consumer continuing details drive expecting fairly growth positive robust
When you look at the details on the positive revision, it's a fairly robust figure. The consumer is continuing to drive a lot of the growth that we're expecting in the first quarter.
cause preparing reading traders
Traders were really preparing for the worst. I think the reading is very much a cause for relief.
auto consumer drop expect growth lower major primarily sharp
Fourth-quarter growth is going to be softer, primarily because of lower consumer spending, but we expect better growth this quarter. A major part of it is the sharp drop in auto sales, and we wouldn't expect to see that again.
both economic fairly growth near outlook overall solid tells
From an economic perspective, it tells us that we are still having a fairly solid growth in both manufacturing and the overall outlook in the near term.