John Ryding
John Ryding
average concerned economic fed further greenspan increase likely rather report signs weakness worrying
With the Fed maintaining an economic-weakness bias, Greenspan is more likely to be concerned with the signs of further economic weakness in this report rather than worrying about the increase in average hourly earnings.
april bond fed few japanese march ourselves people period relates technical toward weakness
We are going through a period of weakness in March and toward the end of February. And that relates to things like Japanese (fiscal) year-end and a few other technical factors. I think getting on the March 30 FMOC meeting, the Fed (will do) nothing that reassures people . . . and I think we set ourselves up for an April bond rally.
although auto change consumer data picture reflect report retail sales since slowing spending weak
Although the retail sales report was not as weak as expected, it does not change the picture of slowing consumer spending growth, especially since the auto sales data do not reflect Detroit's reality.
absent cut data economic fed hold jobs rates sit three unless weak
I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.
appears decline growth june labor maintained market payroll pressure putting rate reduced since solid trend wage
The solid trend in payroll growth has been maintained into February. Reduced labor market slack, illustrated by the decline in the unemployment rate since June 2003, appears to be putting upward pressure on wage increases.
energy perception prices
Energy prices do matter, especially to the public's perception of inflation.
albeit contained core inflation informal range remains target
Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the Feds informal target range of 1-2 pct.
albeit contained core federal inflation informal range remains reserve target
Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the ( Federal Reserve 's) informal target range of one-two percent.
changes commerce department except figure game heat normal prolonged remember since summer typical weather
You have to remember it's only exceptional and prolonged heat that changes trends, since the Commerce Department seasonally adjusts out all typical heat. The game is to try to figure out if the weather is seasonally abnormal. Except for this week, we've had a pretty normal summer in the Northeast.
allow doubt economics fed political politics pressure september
There's no doubt there's political pressure on the Fed to do nothing on September 20th. The Fed will allow economics to overrule the politics of the situation.
barrier fed interest lowering rates
There's no barrier to the Fed lowering interest rates significantly.
activity chicago ended good region year
Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region ended the year with good momentum.
concerns continues fed maintain production risk sector slack upside
From the Fed's perspective, slack in the production sector continues to diminish, which should maintain Fed concerns about upside risk to inflation.
doubt economic forced four growth interest job last month per rates
If we hadn't had Asia, there's no doubt that the Fed's economic model, with 350,000 job growth per month in each of the last four months, would have forced interest rates up.