John Lonski
John Lonski
averages equity five growth law market percent seems year
Five years of having equity market growth of 25 percent a year seems to be a thing of the past. The law of long-term averages is reasserting itself.
adds asia bottom contingent east economy further percent perhaps regarding weakness
I think the bottom right now is perhaps about 5-3/4 percent and that is contingent on further weakness in East Asia that adds to uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy in 1998.
chance complete federal funds good late percent rate rise
I think there's a very good chance we could see the Federal funds rate rise to at least 5.25 percent by year's end, ... If not up to 5.5 percent, which would be a complete reversal of late 1998's three-staged reduction.
eventually expect fed hit less move neutral note percent start yield
The Fed will eventually move to a neutral stance, and I don't think we're there yet. When we start to see payrolls of 200,000 a month, I expect the yield on the 10-year note will hit 4.5 percent and the Fed will become less patient.
ahead hurry increase interest
is in no hurry to go ahead and increase interest rates.
bottom clearer happen help
It would help to put in a bottom if we had a clearer idea of what may happen in Iraq,
america bonds borrowing brought budget corporate demand emergence federal investor issue offset reduction reminds
The super-sized issue from AT&T reminds us of how . . . investor demand for long-term investment-grade corporate bonds is very strong. Corporate America has more than offset (the) reduction in federal borrowing . . . brought on by the emergence of the federal budget surplus.
bonds buy convinced economy rates rising rush slow unless
Don't rush out to buy long-term bonds as rates are rising unless you're convinced that the economy is going to slow significantly.
economy might program pull tax
We have some hint that the tax rebate program just might be able to pull the economy out of its funk,
improvement less sustained testimony worry
I think this testimony is much more confident. His worry that the improvement will not be sustained is less pronounced.
brakes consumer dangerous debt mix quickly
What we have here is a dangerous mix of fast-growing debt and fast-rising unemployment that could quickly put the brakes on consumer spending.
attractive fine fixed lock opportunity prove rate relatively
I don't think it's going to stop. It may be a fine opportunity to lock in a fixed rate that may prove to be relatively attractive historically.
everyday handle mean talk
We can talk about GDP, but what does that mean to most people? The everyday American has a better handle on where the Dow is today, where it was not long ago and where it was at its peak.
attractive bonds extend opportunity sell
It makes sense to sell 30-year bonds now. This is an attractive opportunity to extend maturities.