John Lonski
John Lonski
chance complete federal funds good late percent rate rise
I think there's a very good chance we could see the Federal funds rate rise to at least 5.25 percent by year's end, ... If not up to 5.5 percent, which would be a complete reversal of late 1998's three-staged reduction.
fed impression
He didn't give the impression that the Fed is panicking.
america bonds borrowing brought budget corporate demand emergence federal investor issue offset reduction reminds
The super-sized issue from AT&T reminds us of how . . . investor demand for long-term investment-grade corporate bonds is very strong. Corporate America has more than offset (the) reduction in federal borrowing . . . brought on by the emergence of the federal budget surplus.
eventually expect fed hit less move neutral note percent start yield
The Fed will eventually move to a neutral stance, and I don't think we're there yet. When we start to see payrolls of 200,000 a month, I expect the yield on the 10-year note will hit 4.5 percent and the Fed will become less patient.
economy fed gain half hikes imply latest lie mark rate second speed temporary turning
This could mark a turning point. After all, the Fed was right, the latest slowdown was temporary and the economy is about to gain speed going into the second half of 2005, which would imply that more rate hikes lie ahead.
added committed fed global higher inflation investors order potential price pursuing reassure remains risks statement theme underlying
The underlying theme (in the Fed's statement) is the same but the Fed added the statement on the potential for higher inflation risks in order to reassure global investors that the Fed very much remains committed to pursuing price stability.
everyday handle mean talk
We can talk about GDP, but what does that mean to most people? The everyday American has a better handle on where the Dow is today, where it was not long ago and where it was at its peak.
above annual break climb continue convinced core fact leaves oil rate remaining verge
The fact that oil is remaining above $40 leaves me all the more convinced that core CPI will continue to climb higher, that we're on the verge of having the annual rate break above 2 percent.
improvement less sustained testimony worry
I think this testimony is much more confident. His worry that the improvement will not be sustained is less pronounced.
adds asia bottom contingent east economy further percent perhaps regarding weakness
I think the bottom right now is perhaps about 5-3/4 percent and that is contingent on further weakness in East Asia that adds to uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy in 1998.
attractive fine fixed lock opportunity prove rate relatively
I don't think it's going to stop. It may be a fine opportunity to lock in a fixed rate that may prove to be relatively attractive historically.
bonds borrowing costs minimize stepped time
If the government's so smart, then why haven't corporations done this a long time ago? Corporations have actually stepped up 30-year bonds because they think they will minimize borrowing costs over time.
brakes consumer dangerous debt mix quickly
What we have here is a dangerous mix of fast-growing debt and fast-rising unemployment that could quickly put the brakes on consumer spending.
energy holiday mediocre prices season shopping unless
Unless energy prices ease, the holiday shopping season will probably be mediocre at best.