John Lonski
John Lonski
eventually expect fed hit less move neutral note percent start yield
The Fed will eventually move to a neutral stance, and I don't think we're there yet. When we start to see payrolls of 200,000 a month, I expect the yield on the 10-year note will hit 4.5 percent and the Fed will become less patient.
economy fed gain half hikes imply latest lie mark rate second speed temporary turning
This could mark a turning point. After all, the Fed was right, the latest slowdown was temporary and the economy is about to gain speed going into the second half of 2005, which would imply that more rate hikes lie ahead.
america bonds borrowing brought budget corporate demand emergence federal investor issue offset reduction reminds
The super-sized issue from AT&T reminds us of how . . . investor demand for long-term investment-grade corporate bonds is very strong. Corporate America has more than offset (the) reduction in federal borrowing . . . brought on by the emergence of the federal budget surplus.
fed impression
He didn't give the impression that the Fed is panicking.
chance complete federal funds good late percent rate rise
I think there's a very good chance we could see the Federal funds rate rise to at least 5.25 percent by year's end, ... If not up to 5.5 percent, which would be a complete reversal of late 1998's three-staged reduction.
added committed fed global higher inflation investors order potential price pursuing reassure remains risks statement theme underlying
The underlying theme (in the Fed's statement) is the same but the Fed added the statement on the potential for higher inflation risks in order to reassure global investors that the Fed very much remains committed to pursuing price stability.
bonds buy convinced economy rates rising rush slow unless
Don't rush out to buy long-term bonds as rates are rising unless you're convinced that the economy is going to slow significantly.
averages equity five growth law market percent seems year
Five years of having equity market growth of 25 percent a year seems to be a thing of the past. The law of long-term averages is reasserting itself.
ahead hurry increase interest
is in no hurry to go ahead and increase interest rates.
bottom clearer happen help
It would help to put in a bottom if we had a clearer idea of what may happen in Iraq,
evidence sluggish
This could be interpreted as evidence of a still soft, sluggish economy.
brings gains
This brings the possibility of steeper-than-anticipated gains in profits.
bad continue credit economy heading higher market until yields
The credit market right now is bracing for some bad news. Yields should continue heading higher until the U.S. economy slackens appreciably.
attractive bonds extend opportunity sell
It makes sense to sell 30-year bonds now. This is an attractive opportunity to extend maturities.