John Kyriakopoulos
John Kyriakopoulos
australian banks bond central dollar driven global hurt hurting interest major raising rates rise three
The Australian dollar is being hurt by the rise in global bond yields, driven by expectations all three major central banks will be raising interest rates this year. This is hurting commodities.
cannot clearly correction data dollar downward driven fed near outlook policy term
The outlook for the Fed policy is clearly data dependent. I cannot see much downward correction to the U.S. dollar over the near term being driven by the data.
currency flows meet moves small
As such, currency moves are being exaggerated as small lumpy flows meet low liquidity.
dollar economic growth investors prove remains remind reports serve
U.S. economic reports serve to remind investors that U.S. economic growth remains solid, and as long as this continues, writing the U.S. dollar off could prove a costly strategy.
commodity interest prices rate rising spread
While commodity prices have been rising Australia's interest rate spread has been narrowing.
against downside economy euro fragile increases interest looks protect rate short solid sometime support term
While a hawkish sounding ECB will protect the downside for the euro in the short term -- support looks solid back to 1.2050 -- the fragile euro-zone economy argues against any interest rate increases for sometime to come.
appeared australian carry concerns earlier interest japanese rates reverse rising supported
Perceptions that Japanese interest rates would not be rising much appeared to reverse earlier concerns about an end to carry trades, which supported the Australian dollar.
action days exhaustion few last potential price suggest
The price action of the last few days does suggest a potential exhaustion in the dollar's rally,
bank current cutting earlier plays rates reserve risks track zealand
It plays to the risks of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting rates earlier than its current track suggests.
australian benign consumer disappear economy far hike likelihood news price rate report weigh
The news on the Australian economy has been far from upbeat. A benign consumer price index report will make the likelihood of another RBA rate hike disappear completely and this will potentially weigh on the Australian dollar.
added bond carry further japanese perception rose today trades yields
It's more of the same, with the perception that carry trades are being unwound, and that Japanese bond yields rose further today probably added to that trend.
dollar euro fed half okay tough year
It will be a tough first half of the year for the U.S. dollar with the Fed peaking with rates. The euro will do okay in the first half on expectations the ECB will tighten rates.
clearly consensus dollar next risks short upside
There are clearly upside risks around the consensus expectations for non-farm payrolls. As such, we would not be short the U.S. dollar over the next 24 hours.
dollar further last percent recovering sharp slide
We're back to 5 percent expectations and the dollar is recovering from its sharp slide of last week. The dollar has a little further to go.