John Canavan
John Canavan
above bit bond consensus developed economic employment fear general looking market numbers recent solid stronger traders turned
Yes, the market developed a fear that employment would be stronger than it turned out to be, but it was still a pretty solid number, above economists' consensus forecast, so in general you're looking at recent economic numbers that have bond traders a little bit concerned.
bond buying caused curve interest move quick recent seeing
The flattening move of the curve has been accelerating. There was some substantial buying of the new 30-year bond and now we're seeing a reversal of that as recent interest has waned. This has caused a quick reversal of the inversion.
book drove high note yield
What really drove the two-year to the high yield of the day was the two-year note auction, and the Beige Book didn't do anything to help.
extended fed inflation period raising rates remains remarkably tame
At the long end, inflation remains remarkably tame because the Fed has been raising rates for an extended period of time.
clear declines fed forward further looking next note suggestion week
We're looking at a Fed that's going to tighten in March. There's a clear suggestion we're going to see further declines in the two-year note going forward even if it's not in the next week or so.
auctions based difficult draw gets note
It gets the refunding off on the right foot, but it's still difficult to draw conclusions about how well the five- and 10-year note auctions will do based on the three-year auction.
bit good people seeing small steady supply today
The announcement today is just a small part of what's going on. We have been seeing a good and steady supply of issuance, and that's going to spook people a little bit from a supply perspective.
based damage economic fact fears great head higher hurricane lower prices short term worst yields
Over the short term Treasuries yields will head higher and prices lower based on the fact that economic damage from this hurricane is not as great as the worst fears had priced in.
investing opportunity provide rising yields
If yields are rising over there, they provide a better investing opportunity.
care chain claims eye housing might nobody people sales store
(Jobless) claims nobody is going to care about, housing completions nobody is going to care about, chain store sales people might eye a little bit,
base far footing held interest last market middle month open prices rise seen short since suggesting treasury
You have seen a pretty significant rise in open interest in the Treasury futures market since the middle of last month as prices have declined, suggesting a pretty substantial short base out there, so we've held our footing so far this week.
data issue major payroll reacting sentiment stronger
It was a little stronger than expected, but the sentiment data really hasn't been a major issue here. We're really still reacting to the payroll data.
above bond percent push sharp taken
The sell-off has been sharp but not extreme. It did push the bond above 5 percent and that is going to be the psychological story taken away from all of this.
becomes curve depends factor firmly lead remains sets talk tomorrow tough until week yield
The story of the week has been the inverted yield curve. It's tough to read too much into the inversion. We may be more firmly inverted tomorrow after the psychological factor sets in. We can have an inverted curve and have it not lead to a recession. It depends on how much the curve becomes inverted and how long it remains there until we can talk about a recession.