John Canavan
John Canavan
based damage economic fact fears great head higher hurricane lower prices short term worst yields
Over the short term Treasuries yields will head higher and prices lower based on the fact that economic damage from this hurricane is not as great as the worst fears had priced in.
auctions based difficult draw gets note
It gets the refunding off on the right foot, but it's still difficult to draw conclusions about how well the five- and 10-year note auctions will do based on the three-year auction.
data issue major payroll reacting sentiment stronger
It was a little stronger than expected, but the sentiment data really hasn't been a major issue here. We're really still reacting to the payroll data.
above bond percent push sharp taken
The sell-off has been sharp but not extreme. It did push the bond above 5 percent and that is going to be the psychological story taken away from all of this.
becomes curve depends factor firmly lead remains sets talk tomorrow tough until week yield
The story of the week has been the inverted yield curve. It's tough to read too much into the inversion. We may be more firmly inverted tomorrow after the psychological factor sets in. We can have an inverted curve and have it not lead to a recession. It depends on how much the curve becomes inverted and how long it remains there until we can talk about a recession.
auction factor market spread supply terribly tips treasury
The spread supply had been a factor weighing on the Treasury market and when the 10-year TIPS auction didn't go terribly well, that compounded the issue.
dollar inflation remains
Is the dollar importing inflation pressures? I think it remains to be seen.
ask county deeper dig eliminate pockets taxpayers wasteful
Eliminate patronage and wasteful spending. Don't ask taxpayers to dig deeper into their pockets when some county employees, some venders and some suppliers have Joel in their back pocket.
extended fed inflation period raising rates remains remarkably tame
At the long end, inflation remains remarkably tame because the Fed has been raising rates for an extended period of time.
bit good people seeing small steady supply today
The announcement today is just a small part of what's going on. We have been seeing a good and steady supply of issuance, and that's going to spook people a little bit from a supply perspective.
book drove high note yield
What really drove the two-year to the high yield of the day was the two-year note auction, and the Beige Book didn't do anything to help.
above bit bond consensus developed economic employment fear general looking market numbers recent solid stronger traders turned
Yes, the market developed a fear that employment would be stronger than it turned out to be, but it was still a pretty solid number, above economists' consensus forecast, so in general you're looking at recent economic numbers that have bond traders a little bit concerned.
clear declines fed forward further looking next note suggestion week
We're looking at a Fed that's going to tighten in March. There's a clear suggestion we're going to see further declines in the two-year note going forward even if it's not in the next week or so.
amount pressure supply
It's still a hefty amount of supply and there will be pressure on the market.