Joel Naroff
Joel Naroff
cannot conclude consumers few given previous spent touch weather
Consumers may have throttled back a touch in February, but given the weather and all they had spent the previous few months, we cannot conclude that consumption is faltering.
costs earnings further input limited pressure pricing rise sharp
The sharp rise in input costs can only further pressure earnings in those sectors where there is limited pricing power, which is still most of the economy.
bunny deficit describe growing keeps small steroids term trade
The trade deficit, if you can still use the term deficit to describe the GDP of a small country, just keeps getting wider. This is the Energizer bunny on steroids as it keeps growing and growing and growing.
clearly expect prices reason wholesale
Wholesale prices are going nowhere. We don't have deflation, but clearly there is no reason to expect prices to jump.
acted activity carry downward economic economy looked production saw spiral wanting
Manufacturers are not fools, and they looked out over the economy and saw that economic activity had slowed dramatically, ... Not wanting to carry inventories, they slashed production and workers. They acted correctly, but the downward spiral has been set in motion.
adjustment december decline existing given home january pace robust sales sharp start strong trend
Given how strong January existing home sales were, the surprisingly sharp decline in January new home sales may be more an adjustment to the robust December sales pace than the start of a weakening trend in housing.
against bid businesses capacity choice creeping inflation pressures running
Businesses are running up against capacity constraints and have no choice but to hire, and that may bid up wages. Productivity is decelerating and inflation pressures keep creeping up.
boss cannot good worries
Basically, the new boss has the same worries as the old boss. For the markets, this cannot be good news.
basis cut movement rest shows yield
If they cut by 50 basis points, we may also see some movement down in the rest of the yield curve, ... If they cut by 25 basis points, I don't think it shows up in the rest of the curve.
consumers sector surprise
With consumers not spending, is it any surprise that the manufacturing sector has stumbled?
early estimates impacts katrina starting
We are starting to get early estimates of the impacts of Katrina and they are ugly.
bears economy points reached
There are seminal points in economies, and they're reached rarely, ... We reached one in the 1990s, and we will not go back to an economy that bears any resemblance to the one before.
buying decline demand forget june level market mortgage people rates showing sign wonder
Forget the decline from the June pace. What is important is the level of activity, and that is extraordinarily high, ... This market is showing no sign of weakness. With mortgage rates so low, it is no wonder that people are still out there buying homes. And with demand strong, construction is not going to fail.
amount concern economy fed force indicate large likely maintained momentum numbers obviously
The numbers we're getting all indicate that the economy has maintained a large amount of momentum and that's obviously a concern to the Fed and will likely force their hand.