Joel Naroff
Joel Naroff
cannot conclude consumers few given previous spent touch weather
Consumers may have throttled back a touch in February, but given the weather and all they had spent the previous few months, we cannot conclude that consumption is faltering.
amount concern economy fed force indicate large likely maintained momentum numbers obviously
The numbers we're getting all indicate that the economy has maintained a large amount of momentum and that's obviously a concern to the Fed and will likely force their hand.
condition confidence continue failure firm levels markets near questions raises remain september true
If the markets continue to firm in September and confidence does rebound, then we will have dodged the bullet, ... But the failure of confidence to remain at least near July's levels raises some questions as to the true condition of the economy.
buy confidence message people sending willing
If people are willing to buy big-ticket items, the message they are sending is that they still have confidence about the future,
cause housing key major rates risen sector supposed
Housing is the one key sector that is supposed to be interest-rate sensitive, but at least so far, rates have not risen enough to cause a major retrenchment.
early estimates impacts katrina starting
We are starting to get early estimates of the impacts of Katrina and they are ugly.
bears economy points reached
There are seminal points in economies, and they're reached rarely, ... We reached one in the 1990s, and we will not go back to an economy that bears any resemblance to the one before.
consumers sector surprise
With consumers not spending, is it any surprise that the manufacturing sector has stumbled?
air bubbles collapse country far likely losing plenty rapidly
There are plenty of bubbles around the country that are losing air rapidly and more are likely to follow. But so far there is no generalized collapse in the market.
behind days drop extent home levels record sales seems surprised though
The extent of the drop seems overdone, ... I would not be surprised if home sales rebound, though the days of record sales levels may be behind us.
current great homes number problem selling toward trend
There is an ever-growing number of homes on the market, and while the overhang is not great at the current selling pace, it could become a problem if we trend back toward more sustainable levels,
adjustment december decline existing given home january pace robust sales sharp start strong trend
Given how strong January existing home sales were, the surprisingly sharp decline in January new home sales may be more an adjustment to the robust December sales pace than the start of a weakening trend in housing.
cutting households indicate start tells
It doesn't indicate that households are going to dramatically start cutting back spending, but this does tells us that consumption, at least in this quarter, isn't going to be that great,
clearly expect prices reason wholesale
Wholesale prices are going nowhere. We don't have deflation, but clearly there is no reason to expect prices to jump.