Jim Ritterbusch
Jim Ritterbusch
capacity gasoline presents problem produce sufficient within
The problem with sufficient refinery capacity to produce gasoline still presents an issue, at least within the US.
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It's still somewhat of a coin toss. The odds lean against the possibility of this coming up the Houston Ship Channel.
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The biggest surprise was the increase in distillate stocks.
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The U.S. dollar recovery yesterday and today is forcing some funds to part with their longs. They were looking for an excuse to take some profits and they found that excuse in the dollar strength.
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Crude supply is no longer an issue. We have plenty of it. However, that crude number is being countered to some extent by the large decline in gasoline stocks.
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Crude stocks should show a sizable increase as an expected further recovery in imports toward 10 million barrels a day more than negates the impact of additional refinery restarts.
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We did see a larger draw than expected, but that draw was mitigated by a significant increase in refinery runs.
coast gulf supply
This tightness of supply in the Gulf Coast is going to spread,
stretch
This thing has tentacles that are going to stretch all over the place,
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After Katrina, we're better equipped to analyze the potential for Rita and I don't think the upside response will be as exaggerated.
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The big thing was that products stocks were up at expense of crude. The good news is we're building products supplies; the bad news is crude supplies are back down toward historic low levels.
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A source of support to the screen appears to be indications of increased refinery maintenance that should prove capable of reversing a dramatic 23-mil bbl up-trend in gasoline stocks during the past seven weeks. Production declines should also be driven by some slippage in gasoline yields.
deficit early winter
You still have a sizable year-on-year deficit in distillate stocks, so it's too early in the winter to write off this distillate market.
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But they do provide evidence that the oil infrastructure can bounce back pretty quickly after a really bad storm. These gasoline numbers give a cushion.