Jim Melcher
Jim Melcher
question
That's the question of the day: is it sustainable,
buying consumer economic investor mild question
We've got deteriorating economic fundamentals still. We're probably in a mild recession, but the question is will the consumer keep buying and will the investor keep buying stocks.
catalyst certainly fed lasted news ought question rally sort spark sustain terrific year
Something like this news is the sort of catalyst that ought to spark a terrific rally now, but the question is will it sustain itself? And that's not at all clear. Certainly in '98 when the Fed did this you had a rally that lasted a year or two. I think we're going into a rally right now,
gone great hit normal rise today worst
The worst hit sectors today are the ones that have gone up the most. They've had a great rise and so it's normal to see this kind of pullback.
cheap foreign move prices raised retailers upset
PPI has been rising, but retailers and manufacturers haven't raised prices yet, because there is too much cheap foreign competition. If you see CPI move up, that could upset stocks.
edge marginal positive small street view wall
What we have is a very small marginal edge of a positive view on this. Wall Street is cynical.
corporate direct market operate oversight poor regulation stayed stock
I have stayed away because corporate governance, stock market oversight and regulation are all pretty poor in China. One way to play it is through Hong Kong. You can operate there with some real confidence, and that's probably your most direct play. The other way is through Taiwan.
keeps pumping
It just keeps pumping out the earnings, an excellently managed company,
road rocky work
It's going to be a rocky road going forward. You're going to have to work for your money.
amazing holding market oil prices
It's amazing the market is holding up as well as it is, considering that oil prices are at a record.
bear cheap easily economic poor rally stock strong
This rally could easily be a strong rally in a bear market. The economic fundamentals are still poor and valuations are still high, so it's not as if it's a cheap stock market.
balance drift likely market point short
I think the market is at a balance point here and that we are likely to drift over the short run.
companies earnings move season start wrong
We are just about to move into the pre-announcement season when companies start to tell you how wrong you were about earnings estimates,
case excuse money
There's a lot of money out there and a willingness to take any excuse to put it to work, in this case the Fed.