Jim Melcher
Jim Melcher
balance drift likely market point short
I think the market is at a balance point here and that we are likely to drift over the short run.
corporate direct market operate oversight poor regulation stayed stock
I have stayed away because corporate governance, stock market oversight and regulation are all pretty poor in China. One way to play it is through Hong Kong. You can operate there with some real confidence, and that's probably your most direct play. The other way is through Taiwan.
bear cheap easily economic poor rally stock strong
This rally could easily be a strong rally in a bear market. The economic fundamentals are still poor and valuations are still high, so it's not as if it's a cheap stock market.
question
That's the question of the day: is it sustainable,
definitely
I think there's definitely been a (psychological) shift,
consumer economy fact gm hiring impact looking negative people retail sales slowing waking
People are looking at the negative pre-announcements from GM and IBM, the retail sales reports, the hiring trends, and they're waking up to the fact that the consumer is slowing down, and that's going to impact the economy and corporations.
edge marginal positive small street view wall
What we have is a very small marginal edge of a positive view on this. Wall Street is cynical.
component energy focus gm inflation major oil prices
I think it's a combination of the oil prices and GM today. There's been a heightened focus on inflation recently, and energy prices are a major component in inflation.
buying consumer economic investor mild question
We've got deteriorating economic fundamentals still. We're probably in a mild recession, but the question is will the consumer keep buying and will the investor keep buying stocks.
companies earnings move season start wrong
We are just about to move into the pre-announcement season when companies start to tell you how wrong you were about earnings estimates,
ball cow fund managers nervous rolling smart start worried
I'm not worried about 8,000 hedge funds, ... I'm worried about 400 or 500 of them ? that's what could start the ball rolling down the hill. While most hedge fund managers are pretty smart and knowledgeable, it doesn't take too many to start a rout. One nervous cow and you could start a stampede.
danger fast lose people pull retirement
If people think they're going to lose their retirement savings, they're going to pull out real fast and that's the danger of the market.
basis foreigners interest maybe money moving quick quite rates talking
If you get foreigners moving money out of U.S. Treasuries in a quick way, then you are talking about interest rates moving up quite a bit, maybe 150 basis points.
distorting higher move odds prices tends week
I think odds are we'll move higher in the week ahead. There's a lot of liquidity, it's what's buoying the markets, it's what's distorting the market, and it tends to move prices up.