Jeoff Hall
Jeoff Hall
earlier fed funds increase looking percent perhaps previous rate respond timetable
The Fed should respond with a rate increase earlier than the previous timetable had suggested. Now we're looking at perhaps a 1-3/4 percent funds rate by the end of this year.
consensus fed including manager market national november purchasing regional support tendency view
Anecdotes, including purchasing manager surveys and regional and national Fed indices, do little to support the consensus view of a 210,000 gain. Moreover, the market has a tendency to overestimate November payrolls.
continue expect labor majority market services trend
Manufacturing is not a majority of the labor market any more, but I would expect services will continue to show the trend growth.
shocks
I wouldn't say that's spectacular, but I would say it's on trend, especially considering the shocks like energy-price increases.
heady looking personal running
We're looking at undaunted consumers, with personal expenditures running at a heady clip.
bond days few hard hit last market
The bond market has been hit hard the last few days on these concerns.
bigger drag exert higher march quarter result revision second slightly starting
What we take away as significant is a slightly bigger drag on first-quarter GDP as a result of the revision to March and starting off the second quarter with lackluster trade, which would exert a higher drag on GDP.
economy fed push tempting unsavory
You're tempting something unsavory in that the Fed could push this economy into the ground.
business causing couple effect hurricane katrina next
I think there's gong to be hurricane effect for next couple of readings. It's not just Katrina and Rita. Hurricane Wilma was causing evacuations, business closings in October.
bonds gaining issues itself market next rate reflecting
The market is readying itself for a 50-basis-point rate increase. Shorter-term issues are reflecting that, while longer-dated bonds are gaining on expectations that next week's refunding announcement will be positive.
academics basis economic either looking market next numbers points wrong
The market is looking for 50 basis points and they have it priced in. Either the market has it wrong or the academics have it wrong, but either way next week's economic numbers will be crucial.