Jeffrey Hirsch
Jeffrey Hirsch
best months november potential six start tempered
Seasonally, we're at the start of what should be the best six months of the year, but I'm cautious. There's still the potential for November to be OK, but I've tempered our outlook.
focusing happening markets plans
Everyone is focusing on what's happening and making plans for where the markets are going to go.
age bias editors exchange global represent shrinking stock york
There used to be a New York Stock Exchange bias but the editors have become more progressive over the years. And in this age of a shrinking world, the Dow should represent a global economy,
tends
There tends to be a lot of housecleaning from institutions in September,
looks minor second summer typical
Not really, as we've had a pretty typical first and second quarter. It looks like we'll see the traditional minor summer rally.
auto editors gm good group highly journal leading market news represents street wall
I'm not one of the editors of the Wall Street Journal , but I want to use the Dow as a market leading indicator, and for that you want a group of highly influential stocks, even when the news is bad. GM still represents a good part of the auto industry.
expecting few growth last normally november pace saw unlikely
I'm not expecting this November to be any different than it normally is, but it's unlikely we'll see the pace of growth we saw over the last few years.
august declines definitely early likely looking lower quite steep sustained until weak
I'm not looking for quite the same steep declines this year, but early August has already been weak and we are definitely trending a lot lower for the period. You're not likely to see another sustained upturn until the end of the year.
breaks event proverbial straw
An event like this can be the proverbial straw that breaks the market's back.
leave
Your long-term holdings you leave alone, but your shorter-term ones you may want to move.
dealing favorable less markets period portfolio quarter
You're dealing with a seasonal period that's less favorable for markets and you're also dealing with end of quarter portfolio issues.
bull correction former heels huge indicator minor seemed success
But that was just a minor correction on the heels of a huge bull market. The market's former success seemed to be more of an indicator that year,
automobile company industry remove represents sure
It's not inconceivable to remove GM. But I'm not sure if there is another automobile company that better represents the industry and the auto industry is here to stay.
bias broader july lower rest tends volume
There also tends to be a broader July 4th rally, and then after that, a lot of lower volume and a flat-to-lower bias through the rest of the season.