Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernsteinis a Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden in the Obama Administration. Bernstein's appointment was considered to represent a progressive perspective and "to provide a strong advocate for workers"...
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This report may give pause to some of the optimists looking for a stronger second half, ... We need a real boost if we're going to reverse some of these trends that are even more negative than we thought they were.
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We've seen we can drive the economy at 4 percent unemployment with strong productivity gains. I won't be satisfied until we're back there. Many working families won't be either, I'd guess.
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With stagnant hourly wages, the only way for working families to get ahead is by working more hours, ... certainly not the path to improving living standards that we'd expect in an economy posting strong productivity gains.
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This is very much the type of job report you would expect coming off a strong quarter.
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In a strong economy, hours and output can both grow, so long as output grows at a faster rate, thus resulting in productivity growth. But... productivity can also grow in a slowdown or recession, when a decline in hours outpaces weak or nonexistent output growth.
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These results reveal the breadth of the unprecedented gap between the pace of overall economic progress and the returns to working people.
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I've been pretty happy to see the pace of job growth in professional services.
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These are workers who have the weakest bargaining leverage and are most likely to be exploited, particularly in a period where you have a weak labor demand and a large labor supply.
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Enough people said exactly that ? I tend to believe them.
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Folks at the top of the income scale definitely notice when they're paying $3.50 a gallon for gasoline. But for them, that doesn't necessarily mean they are going to have to cut back elsewhere, ... Younger families have lower incomes.
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Folks are coming back into the labor market, but they're not finding jobs there. The tepid pace of job growth was too low to keep unemployment from rising. We're looking at a fairly weak recovery, at least initially.
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People think unemployment is still relatively low, but there's all the difference in the world between a tight labor market and a weak one when you're talking about employees' ability to bargain for a fair share of growth.
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Our expectations have been pretty diminished. A good month used to be 300,000 more jobs and now it is 200,000.
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As this recovery gets under way, professional services have begun adding jobs fairly broadly.