James Knightley
James Knightley
again deficit expect hurricane impact insurance narrow negative release
Hurricane insurance payouts will not recur, we expect the deficit to narrow sharply again in Q4 2005. The negative impact on sterling from today's release should be short-lived.
argue housing leading market risk slow uk
The risk for the U.S. is that the housing market there may slow markedly, so you can actually argue that for once the UK is actually leading the U.S..
data encourage flow further morning rhetoric
Euro-zone data flow this morning will encourage further hawkish rhetoric from the ECB.
activity again boost fed half hopes increase raising rates remain talk
This ... will boost hopes that activity in the first half of 2006 will remain robust. It will also increase talk of the Fed raising rates again in May, to 5%.
activity adds concern consumer data housing market months prospects
Today's data is very weak, which adds to our concern about the prospects for consumer activity and the housing market in the months ahead.
average bank below compatible considered earnings england far growth inflation past rate remained softer
Average earnings growth was far softer than anticipated. It remained at 3.5% ... and is well below the 4.5% rate that the Bank of England has in the past considered compatible with its inflation forecast.
committee data direction members pointing rest
We're probably going to get two members who go for a cut. The data isn't pointing in one direction enough for the rest of the committee to go with them just yet.
bears bond existing further help hike home news offer push rate report sales stronger support
The (confidence) report will offer further support for the bond bears and help to push up rate hike expectations, as will news that existing home sales were stronger than expected.
coming cut economic gradually interest led offer pencil pressures rate rather relative scope strength
Inflationary pressures are gradually easing, which should offer scope for interest rate cuts, but near-term relative economic strength has led us to pencil in the first cut coming in May rather than in the first quarter.