Ian Stannard
Ian Stannard
Ian Stannardis an English track and road racing cyclist for UCI ProTour team Team Sky...
both dollar negative potential provide
Both have the potential to provide dollar with negative surprises.
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The backdrop for the dollar is negative. G-7 comments were negative while the foreign reserves issue has come back into focus and is going to be a long term negative factor.
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They've raised their inflation and growth forecasts, which suggests that the ECB thinks the European economy is improving and requires more rate hikes. These comments have helped the euro.
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The sentiment is turning dollar negative -- probably the biggest factor putting the dollar under pressure is the rise in oil prices and rise in gold prices.
fed hold near raising rates reasonably
The Fed will be pausing after raising rates in May. Sterling is going to hold up reasonably well in the near term.
impact katrina message officials
The message from officials is that the impact from Katrina will be limited.
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The minutes are a very important event today, with any adjustment suggesting that the peak in rates is close, as we believe it is, seen putting the dollar under further pressure.
carry central drained driver excess global next year
We think next year will be a very different story as excess global liquidity, the driver for carry trades, is drained by central banks.
adds allow asian banks central impression interest prepared raise strength ultimately
This adds to the impression that Asian central banks are going to be prepared to raise interest rates, and ultimately allow more strength in their currencies.
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Speculation regarding a ECB rate hike is likely to start building further, especially coming on top of the more hawkish comments we have been seeing from the ECB officials, so that will be euro supportive,
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During that (November) period the U.S. assets market was performing quite strongly. But I think in the coming months we are going to see some softness in that data as well.
believe clear coalition difficult either election form german grand hostility outcome possible result seems side worst
I believe the German election result is the worst outcome possible for the euro. Not only is there no clear winner, it will be difficult for either side to form a coalition and there seems to be hostility to the idea of a grand coalition.
although banks behind central citing global reasons reserve
Central bank's reserve diversification is now a global trend, although different central banks are citing different reasons behind the change.
behind dollar driving financial flows force hence main market months portfolio summer support
Portfolio flows had been the main driving force behind dollar strength. During the summer months we see a slowdown in financial market activity, and this reduces the flows into the U.S. and hence reduces support for the dollar.