Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
believe chance deficit good seriously underlying
Believe it or not, this is a seriously encouraging report. There is a very good chance the underlying deficit has now peaked.
benefits claims extended filing flow hoped people pushing slow towards trend underlying
We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,
begun believed claims genuinely level peaked underlying
We believed the underlying level of claims peaked in the spring. This suggests that they may now genuinely have begun to decline.
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There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.
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It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend,
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Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.
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Behind the enormous distortions caused by the hurricanes, the underlying state of the labor market has continued to improve.
deficit next rebound trends underlying
The underlying trends are still adverse, however, and the deficit will rebound next month.
claims trend true underlying
The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
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These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
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(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,