Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
confidence ease favor fed meantime next odds rebound surely
We think confidence will rebound next month, but in the meantime the odds surely now favor a Fed ease next week,
across areas country data economy few hit next number outside state sure week weeks
We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
adverse business claims effects late quick recovery requires steep surely thanks trend underlying work
There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.
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It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained, ... The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth.
cited depressed distorted evidence extremely housing hugely industrial january market report retail sales strong surely warm weather
This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.
couple expect fall gas huge latest months next prices
We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
cannot confidence confident drop helpful job june marked market start tight
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
again close confidence cycle data higher home interest last leave reported rise sales sit together tone week
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
bad data future inflation margins news
(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,
data fail inaction leaves november room statement
The statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive.
likely worse
Things will likely get worse before they get better.
confirm labor market moment numbers source
These are spectacular numbers and confirm that the labor market is not at the moment the source of anything that could be plausibly described as inflationary pressure.