Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
consistent dip economic gas growth level line month next quite recent renewed spending spike wake watch
At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.
conditions consumer drop expect fully putting sentiment softer spending
We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.
consistent good indicator leading modest push spending stocks stronger
Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
auto awful held largely october rebound rose sales spending
Nominal spending was held down by a 0.4% energy-induced plunge in the PCE deflator, so real spending rose a hefty 0.7%. A rebound in auto sales after the awful October was largely responsible for this.
albeit bound breach consumers current economy few level matter next numbers percent spending suggest view
With unemployment set to breach 6 percent over the next few months, people's view of the current economy is bound to deteriorate, ... But expectations are what matter for spending, and at this level the numbers suggest consumers spending will rise, albeit not rapidly.
data expect fourth increase last month percent rose spending suggest
The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,
confidence consistent consumer level percent soon spending sure
It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained, ... The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth.
cash people plenty spend
People have plenty of cash - and the inclination to spend it,
consumer february pace percent rises since spending
If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997,
couple expect fall gas huge latest months next prices
We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
couple data expect further gains gasoline growth months next order quarter signal wake
We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
again close confidence cycle data higher home interest last leave reported rise sales sit together tone week
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
bad data future inflation margins news
(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,